Hypotheses
Absorbed-Flush Rule, Third Breadth Replication on Binance SPOT Old Alts: buy a 24-name point-in-time spot panel at the close of a down day whose range blew out (>=2x its 60-day return std) but closed in the upper 40% of its range, fixed 3-day clock, 10% per leg, max 8 concurrent (1-DAY, long-only, unlevered, 2018-2026 incl. delisted EOS/MKR)
Original Research Lead hypothesis, written as a breadth replication rather than a new parameter search. MECHANISM: this is the same rule as the promoted Bybit 'Intraday Flush-Absorption Panel' (200 trades, PF 1.72,…
Strategies
- BinanceSpotOldAltAbsorbedFlushPanel Abandoned
Hypothesis
Original Research Lead hypothesis, written as a breadth replication rather than a new parameter search. MECHANISM: this is the same rule as the promoted Bybit 'Intraday Flush-Absorption Panel' (200 trades, PF 1.72, 1.92% per trade) and its promoted Hyperliquid transfer (151 trades, Sharpe 0.73, 2.02% per trade). On a daily bar the price makes an abnormally deep intraday excursion: the high-low range, divided by the prior close, is at least range_mult times the trailing 60-day std of daily log returns. The bar……Show moreShow less
Original Research Lead hypothesis, written as a breadth replication rather than a new parameter search. MECHANISM: this is the same rule as the promoted Bybit 'Intraday Flush-Absorption Panel' (200 trades, PF 1.72, 1.92% per trade) and its promoted Hyperliquid transfer (151 trades, Sharpe 0.73, 2.02% per trade). On a daily bar the price makes an abnormally deep intraday excursion: the high-low range, divided by the prior close, is at least range_mult times the trailing 60-day std of daily log returns. The bar closes below the prior close, but in the UPPER part of its own range: close location (C-L)/(H-L) > close_loc. Resting demand absorbed the forced selling (spot stop-outs plus spill-over from perp liquidations) inside the same day, the marginal forced seller is gone, and we expect a multi-day rebound. WHY THIS TEST: lesson L258 asks for rule (a) (absorption confirmed on the bar, multi-day clock) to be measured on more names. So far it has run only on leveraged perps (Bybit, Hyperliquid). This replication asks whether the effect exists in a CASH spot market, with no leverage, a different participant mix and twice the round-trip cost (0.20%). It also covers a much longer history (2018-2026, including the 2018-19 and 2022 bear markets) and includes delisted names, which neither earlier panel could. VENUE CHOICE: BINANCE_SPOT is the correct venue for a long-only unlevered idea and sits at 10.3% of the corpus against a >=15% target. OKX was avoided per L242. UNIVERSE (fixed before measurement; disjoint from the Bybit 13 names, the Hyperliquid 15 names, the BTC/ETH/SOL/BNB/XRP/ADA/LINK core and the L250 list of over-mined HL names): XTZ, ALGO, VET, EOS, NEO, IOTA, ZIL, ENJ, BAT, MANA, SAND, CHZ, GRT, HBAR, KAVA, EGLD, THETA, MKR, SUSHI, YFI, ZRX, ONT, QTUM, COMP, each as <SYM>USDT.BINANCE_SPOT 1-DAY. POINT IN TIME: a leg is eligible on a date only if it is listed then and has >= 70 daily bars of its own history (universe_at()/is_listed(), parameters.point_in_time_universe = true). EOS (catalog bars end 2025-05) and MKR (end 2025-09) are kept and are closed at their last price by the base template when they delist. EXECUTION SUBSTITUTION (capability next_bar_open_fill = use_equivalent): the market order is sent at the signal bar's close (00:00 UTC daily close). On a continuous 24/7 market that price is the next bar's open. RISK CONTROL route (b): a fixed time exit plus capped unlevered sizing (10% of equity per leg, at most 8 legs, so gross exposure is at most 80% and never levered). PRE-REGISTERED MEASUREMENT (Research Lead, catalog BINANCE_SPOT 1-DAY bars 2017-11 to 2026-10, decoded directly from the parquet). Fixed rule, non-overlapping per coin, entry at the signal close, exit at the close 3 days later, 0.20% spot round trip deducted, no concurrency cap. At the frozen Bybit values (range_mult 2.0 / close_loc 0.60 / hold 3) there were 516 events on 184 distinct entry dates. Mean net forward return +1.35% per event, win rate 0.55, date-clustered t only 0.70. So this panel is markedly WEAKER per date than Bybit (t 2.62) or Hyperliquid (t 2.74). In the 27-cell grid range_mult {2.0,2.5,3.0} x close_loc {0.5,0.6,0.7} x hold {2,3,5}, every cell has a positive mean (+0.75% to +6.05%), with date-clustered t from 0.28 to 2.32. Stricter range cuts are stronger: at range_mult 3.0 / close_loc 0.6 / hold 3 there were 171 events on 62 dates, +4.11%, t 2.14. By year at the frozen values: 2018 -7.1% (7 events), 2019 -3.4% (27), 2020 +3.7% (43), 2021 +0.7% (85), 2022 +0.4% (61), 2023 +3.1% (89), 2024 +2.1% (123), 2025 +2.9% (48), 2026 -2.1% (33). Note that 2026 is negative here as it was on Bybit and flat on Hyperliquid: the most recent regime may be fading the effect, and the holdout will sit mostly in 2025-2026. Per-name means are positive for 15 of 24 names. This pre-study is context; the full backtest judges the rule. FALSIFICATION: if the optimized panel's pooled OOS average trade is below the 0.25% spot floor, or the per-date t stays near zero, the absorption effect does not survive in a cash market on old alts. That is a useful negative for the family: it would say the effect is a leveraged-perp liquidation phenomenon.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.