Skip to content
All hypotheses

Hypotheses

Binance 3-Major Confluence Trend Basket, Long-Short (Proven 4H+1D Momentum-Confluence Signal Applied INDEPENDENTLY per Name to BTC/ETH/BNB USD-M Perps, Equal-Risk Legs, Net Exposure Floats, MULTI-YEAR History, 3 Shared Parameters)

A LONG-SHORT, MULTI-INSTRUMENT, pure-OHLCV trend basket that runs this factory's ONLY optimization survivor — the 4H-primary + 1D-confirm momentum-confluence signal (BTC single-name version at Sharpe ~1.99, in paper) —…

Hypothesis

A LONG-SHORT, MULTI-INSTRUMENT, pure-OHLCV trend basket that runs this factory's ONLY optimization survivor — the 4H-primary + 1D-confirm momentum-confluence signal (BTC single-name version at Sharpe ~1.99, in paper) — INDEPENDENTLY on three decorrelated Binance USD-M majors (BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, BNBUSDT) and holds the equal-risk portfolio average. The design is dictated by this session's failure analysis. The confluence signal itself works, but every attempt to prove NEW single-name variants keeps failing the……Show moreShow less

A LONG-SHORT, MULTI-INSTRUMENT, pure-OHLCV trend basket that runs this factory's ONLY optimization survivor — the 4H-primary + 1D-confirm momentum-confluence signal (BTC single-name version at Sharpe ~1.99, in paper) — INDEPENDENTLY on three decorrelated Binance USD-M majors (BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, BNBUSDT) and holds the equal-risk portfolio average. The design is dictated by this session's failure analysis. The confluence signal itself works, but every attempt to prove NEW single-name variants keeps failing the multiple-testing gates (PBO > 0.5, DSR insignificant, holdout ratio < 0.70) because a single instrument's Sharpe is too noisy for a 225-trial optimizer to distinguish from best-of-N luck, and the Hyperliquid basket that would have diversified this died on HL's ~2.5-year history. This hypothesis fixes BOTH at once: (1) DIVERSIFICATION suppresses overfit — averaging three independent confluence legs cuts the idiosyncratic variance of the portfolio return, which directly lowers PBO and raises deflated Sharpe (a more stable objective is far harder to noise-select), the textbook antidote to the exact gate failures that killed the single names; (2) BINANCE MULTI-YEAR HISTORY (4+ years on all three names) delivers 300+ combined trades and long multi-regime walk-forward windows — clearing the ~100-trade measurability floor and giving the OOS enough data to hold up, the specific ingredient the HL basket and HL single-names lacked. It uses only 3 parameters SHARED identically across all three legs (no per-asset tuning), so parameter dimensionality is no higher than a single-name strategy while the edge is averaged over three assets. Asset choice maximizes decorrelation: BNB (exchange-token, burns, launchpad cycles) is the lowest-BTC-beta major, so its confluence timing differs from BTC/ETH, improving the aggregate Sharpe. It is materially different from every pipeline item: the single-name confluence ports (BTC/ETH/BNB) are correlated one-legged bets; the HyperliquidFiveMajorTrendFollowingBasket uses a dual-MA-state signal on HL's short/hostile history — THIS is the PROVEN confluence signal on Binance's multi-year history at the portfolio level. Fills long_short direction (13.6% vs target) and multi-instrument scope. Same venue, no cross-venue schema landmine. Pure OHLCV, no supplementary feed (avoids the short-history L/S-ratio/liquidations data_unavailable trap). I acknowledge it adds to the over-represented BINANCE venue; multi-year history — the proven survival ingredient — exists only there.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.