Hypotheses
Lido Withdrawal-Queue Congestion: Short LDO with a Cross-Venue ETH Hedge
Derived by the Research Lead from Lido withdrawal-queue mechanics: test whether unusually persistent redemption demand predicts LDO underperformance relative to ETH over five days. Lido documents request locking and…
Hypothesis
Derived by the Research Lead from Lido withdrawal-queue mechanics: test whether unusually persistent redemption demand predicts LDO underperformance relative to ETH over five days. Lido documents request locking and batch finalization in [WithdrawalQueueERC721](https://docs.lido.fi/contracts/withdrawal-queue-erc721/); that documentation supplies observable mechanics, not a trading rule or evidence of returns. Use synchronized 4-HOUR bars: short LDOUSD.HYPERLIQUID and buy ETHUSDT.BYBIT. Execute market orders at the signal-bar close, the registry equivalent of next-bar-open execution on continuous venues. No atomic cross-venue fills are assumed. Historical on-chain inputs are missing and must be acquired before implementation can test the premise. No performance pre-study was run.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.