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All hypotheses

Hypotheses

Volatility-Managed IWM Exposure Overlay (USEQ, Daily Bars) — Continuous Inverse-Realized-Vol Position Scaling to a Self-Calibrated Vol Target, Cash Sleeve When Scaled Down, Commission-Free, Low-Parameter

A single-instrument, long/flat exposure-scaling overlay on IWM.USEQ (Russell 2000 ETF) implementing the Moreira & Muir (2017, Journal of Finance) volatility-managed portfolio anomaly. This is NOT asset rotation and NOT…

Hypothesis

A single-instrument, long/flat exposure-scaling overlay on IWM.USEQ (Russell 2000 ETF) implementing the Moreira & Muir (2017, Journal of Finance) volatility-managed portfolio anomaly. This is NOT asset rotation and NOT regime hysteresis (the SPY/QQQ->TLT/GLD rotation strategies already in the pipeline are a different mechanism); it is a CONTINUOUS scaling of a single equity's notional by the inverse of its own trailing realized volatility toward a self-calibrated target vol. Deliberately chosen to fill the two……Show moreShow less

A single-instrument, long/flat exposure-scaling overlay on IWM.USEQ (Russell 2000 ETF) implementing the Moreira & Muir (2017, Journal of Finance) volatility-managed portfolio anomaly. This is NOT asset rotation and NOT regime hysteresis (the SPY/QQQ->TLT/GLD rotation strategies already in the pipeline are a different mechanism); it is a CONTINUOUS scaling of a single equity's notional by the inverse of its own trailing realized volatility toward a self-calibrated target vol. Deliberately chosen to fill the two furthest-from-target buckets that also structurally dodge the factory's two leading killers: (1) VENUE — USEQ is 1.4% of the corpus vs a BINANCE that is 70.2% (over the 40% cap), and USEQ is commission-free, which structurally sidesteps fee_edge (485 deaths, the #1 killer that overwhelmingly kills fast crypto mechanisms whose raw move is smaller than fees); (2) OVERFIT (385 deaths, #2 killer) — this is a documented academic anomaly with near-zero free parameters (the vol target is self-calibrated from the asset's own long-run realized vol, not tuned), robust across lookbacks/assets/sub-periods and out-of-sample in the literature, on DECADES of daily IWM history. IWM is chosen over SPY/QQQ because small-caps have higher and more strongly clustered realized vol, giving vol-management more to work with, and because it is a fresh corpus instrument (SPY/QQQ already used by pipeline rotation strategies).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.