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LTC Spot-Cash Band Rebalancing with Re-arming Sleeve-Drawdown Protection

Revision of 'LTC Spot-Cash Threshold Rebalancing in a Capped Capital Sleeve'. Instrument, timeframe, long-only setup, 40% sleeve, 50% target weight and the weight band are unchanged; ONLY the capital protection is…

Hypothesis

Revision of 'LTC Spot-Cash Threshold Rebalancing in a Capped Capital Sleeve'. Instrument, timeframe, long-only setup, 40% sleeve, 50% target weight and the weight band are unchanged; ONLY the capital protection is re-specified. On LTCUSDT.BINANCE_SPOT 4-HOUR bars, a sleeve initially allocated 40% of account equity holds LTC and USDT at a 50/50 target (initial buy: LTC worth 20% of equity at the first post-warm-up bar close). The other 60% of equity is an inactive USDT reserve that never trades. Sleeve value = LTC……Show moreShow less

Revision of 'LTC Spot-Cash Threshold Rebalancing in a Capped Capital Sleeve'. Instrument, timeframe, long-only setup, 40% sleeve, 50% target weight and the weight band are unchanged; ONLY the capital protection is re-specified. On LTCUSDT.BINANCE_SPOT 4-HOUR bars, a sleeve initially allocated 40% of account equity holds LTC and USDT at a 50/50 target (initial buy: LTC worth 20% of equity at the first post-warm-up bar close). The other 60% of equity is an inactive USDT reserve that never trades. Sleeve value = LTC holding value + sleeve USDT (tracked internally; the sleeve's cash is the starting 40% allocation plus/minus sleeve trade proceeds and fees). At each 4H bar close, LTC weight w = LTC value / sleeve value. If |w - 0.5| >= band_width, trade LTC back to exactly 50% of the sleeve value (buy when w is below, partial sell when above). The average-entry inventory stop of the previous version is REMOVED: a rebalancer adds to losers by design, so loss vs cost basis is the wrong risk measure (it fired at the Dec-2017 top and halted trading for 5.4 years). Protection is now at the sleeve level: (1) hard cap: LTC holding never exceeds 30% of total account equity — a buy is truncated to the cap, and if price appreciation pushes LTC above 30% of equity it is trimmed to 30% at the bar close; (2) sleeve-drawdown stop: track the sleeve value's high-water mark; when sleeve value falls sleeve_dd_stop_pct below its HWM at a bar close, sell all LTC into sleeve cash (market order at that bar's close) and enter a PAUSED state; (3) re-arm: the pause ends at the first bar close where EITHER cooldown_bars bars have elapsed since the stop OR the LTC close has recovered rearm_recovery_pct from its lowest close during the pause; on re-arm, buy LTC back to 50% of the (now all-cash) sleeve and reset the sleeve HWM to the current sleeve value. There is never a permanent halt. Execution: all orders are market orders at the signal bar's close (next_bar_open_fill substituted by the platform's 24/7 equivalent: the 4H close equals the next bar's open). No leverage, no shorting, no supplementary data, no assumed cash yield. Risk control route (b): signal-based exits (rebalancing, sleeve-drawdown stop) with capped sizing — the single LTC position is at most 30% of equity, far below 100%. Fee arithmetic: a rebalance only fires after LTC moves enough to shift the weight by band_width; with band_width 0.10, w goes 0.50->0.60 when LTC rises ~50% (or falls ~33% for 0.40), so each rebalance trades ~10-20% of the sleeve after a multi-tens-of-percent move; the volatility-harvesting premium of a 50/50 rebalance relative to buy-and-hold over a ±40% oscillation is roughly 1-3% of the sleeve per round trip, versus 0.10% per spot fill on the traded slice (~0.02% of sleeve). Expected rebalances: LTC 4H realized vol ~80-100%/yr implies roughly 4-10 band crossings per year at 0.10, i.e. ~30-70 rebalance fills over 2018-2025.

Analysis

区块链量化投资系列课程(4) - 动态平衡策略

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.