ETH Upside-Only Weekly-High Acceptance: Long ETHUSDT.OKX for a Fixed 48h After the First Hourly Close Above the Prior 168-Bar Closing High, No Short Side, Flat ~74% of the Time (OKX USDT swap 1H, pure OHLCV, 2 structural parameters, pre-studied)

Single-instrument, single-leg, long-only EVENT trade on the OKX ETH USDT perpetual swap (ETHUSDT.OKX, 1-HOUR bars, history 2019-12-25 to now, ~6.7 years). EVENT: an hourly bar CLOSES above the maximum close of the prior 168 hourly bars (the trailing 7-day closing high) while the previous bar had closed at or below its own trailing max, and the strategy is flat. ACTION: buy at market on that close and hold for exactly 48 bars. No re-entry while in a position; no short side. The signal is pure price; OKX funding is only charged as a holding cost by the engine (accounting key funding_rates, exchange okx). It is not used as a signal. WHY THIS FORM (a revision from evidence, not a new wrapper): the factory's closest prior runs were ADAUSDT.OKX 10-day channel break, LONG-SHORT, 12h clock (no_edge, PF 1.21) and SOLUSD.HYPERLIQUID 4H 10-day break with a 6-day clock (40 trades, PF 1.03). My point-in-time pre-study on 8 coins (ETH OKX; BTC, SOL, XRP, DOGE, BNB, LINK, ADA on Binance USD-M 1H) located the two defects of those runs. (1) The DOWNSIDE mirror has no continuation. After a first close below the 7-day low, the 24h forward move on SOL, XRP and DOGE is a BOUNCE (-0.8% to -1.2% for a short). On ETH it is +0.2%, below cost. A long-short version therefore pays a round trip on its worst leg. (2) The upside forward-return curve on ETH OKX is +0.32% at 6h, +0.55% at 12h, +0.71% at 24h, +0.82% at 36h and +1.15% at 48h, then flattens (1.16% at 60h, 1.20% at 72h). A 12h clock exits before the information is priced. A 6-day clock adds buy-and-hold drawdown after the curve has flattened (L166). The 48h clock sits at the point where the curve flattens, as L166 prescribes. PRE-STUDY (point-in-time; ETH OKX 1H 2019-12 to 2026-09; lookback 168, clock 48, 0.05% taker per side, 1x notional): 319 trades (~47/yr). Mean trade +1.05% net, PF 1.68, win rate 53%, calendar Sharpe 1.32 (daily PnL, 365-day annualization), max drawdown 35% at FULL 1x notional. Average trade is positive in EVERY calendar year: 2020 2.43% (54 trades), 2021 0.95% (60), 2022 0.91% (37, a bear year), 2023 0.80% (46), 2024 1.13% (50), 2025 0.26% (44), 2026 0.25% (28). Pseudo-holdout (last 20%, from 2025-05-22): Sharpe 0.38 on 53 trades, against 1.51 in-sample. The edge has DECAYED recently, and I state that up front. With a 36h clock the pre-study gives Sharpe 1.02 with holdout 0.72, so the effect is not a knife-edge on the clock. Robustness across coins at 48h: BTC +0.65% (t 2.9), SOL +1.61% (t 3.4), XRP +2.20% (t 3.2), DOGE +3.33% (t 3.1), ETH Binance +1.04% (t 3.8). Lookbacks of 72h and 336h give the same sign on all of them. The unconditional 48h ETH drift is ~0.4%, so the conditional EXCESS is ~0.6-0.7% per trade. NEGATIVE CONTROLS I RAN AND AM REPORTING, so the analyst knows what this is NOT: (a) round-number levels: crossings of non-round placebo levels continue just as much, so no round-number effect; (b) stop density above repeatedly tested highs: multi-touch breakouts do not outperform single-touch ones; (c) funding-percentile conditioning: inconsistent in sign across coins; (d) a BTC-also-at-highs confirmation: no consistent difference. None of these filters is in the design. The mechanism is the bare upside acceptance, which keeps the free parameters at two. VENUE RATIONALE: OKX is 1.0% of the corpus against a >=5% quota. Binance USD-M is 65%. ETHUSDT.OKX is one of the only OKX instruments with multi-year 1H history (SOL/XRP/DOGE OKX 1H hold only days), so the mechanism is expressed on the most liquid OKX instrument that carries it (L136). The design needs no supplementary feed, so L160 does not apply. It is not a COIN-M or HL routing (L168/L172). RISK PROFILE: fixed 0.5x of MTM equity notional per trade (about $50k on $100k), 1x leverage cap, and one position at a time, so worst-case gross is 0.5x equity. The pre-study's 35% drawdown at 1x therefore scales to ~18% at 0.5x. Catastrophe stop: exit at the close if the close is 8% below entry. At 0.5x that is ~4% of equity worst case per trade before gaps, and it rarely fires in the pre-study. There is no take-profit, no trailing stop and no pyramiding. Flat state: flat whenever no 48h clock is running, about 74% of hours (319 x 48 / ~58,900 bars).