A single-instrument, single-leg event trade on the DOGEUSDT.BINANCE USD-M perpetual. The signal comes from Binance's own premium index (supplementary key `premium_index`: 1m/1h premiumIndexKlines, i.e. perp price minus spot index as a fraction of index). It is collected for BINANCE USD-M, so the feed is available on this venue (L160). The signal is measured on the same instrument that is traded (L143). The trigger is premium, not price: at each 1H bar close compute P24 = the mean of the hourly premium-index closes over the last 24 hours, then Z = (P24 - mean(P24, trailing 1440h)) / std(P24, trailing 1440h), requiring at least 720h of history. Everything is point-in-time via supp_window/supp_as_of. When Z crosses >= 2.25 and the strategy is flat, go long at the next bar and exit on a fixed 24h clock.
Point-in-time pre-study on the raw catalog, run before proposing (1H bars, non-overlapping events, 2020-2026, 0.10% round trip charged). I tested the short side first because the naive prior is that a rich premium is crowded longs and should revert. It is the reverse, on every name: shorting a rich premium LOST money on DOGE, XRP, SOL and ETH. The effect is continuation. DOGE, long 24h after Z > 2.5: 125 events, mean +2.13%/trade, t = 3.35, every calendar year positive (2021 +3.8%, 2022 +0.3%, 2023 +1.2%, 2024 +3.2%, 2025 +2.3%, 2026 +1.5%), calendar Sharpe net of fees 1.35 at 6% time-in-market. The forward-return profile is +0.36/+0.82/+0.70/+2.13/+1.91% at 4/8/12/24/36h, which gives a local peak at 24h, so the clock is set there and not stretched (L166). Threshold sweep, reported so the analyst can see the curve rather than a cherry-pick: Z > 2.0 gives 218 events, +0.95%/trade, Sharpe 0.76; Z > 2.25 gives 172 events, +1.20%/trade, Sharpe 0.86, 6 of 7 years positive; Z > 2.5 gives 125 events, Sharpe 1.35. I pre-register 2.25, the middle value that still clears the ~150-trade sample floor, and not the best-looking 2.5. Control against pure price momentum (L138/L144): the same rule with the trigger replaced by a 24h-RETURN z > 2.5 gives DOGE calendar Sharpe 0.69, with 2023 and 2025 negative. The premium trigger beat the price trigger on DOGE, XRP (0.68 vs 0.42) and ETH (0.59 vs 0.37), and roughly tied on SOL. Premium events with an unremarkable 24h return (return z < 1.5) still earned +1.53%/24h on DOGE (Sharpe 1.08). The premium therefore carries information that the price tape does not; this is not a re-labelled momentum filter. DOGE is chosen because it is the most liquid high-retail-leverage perp where the effect is strongest and year-stable. It is not a never-traded name (L136). XRP is the fallback expression if DOGE is judged over-concentrated.