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Hypotheses

Bybit Mid-Cap Alt Macro Trend Basket, Long-Short: Independent Per-Name Daily+~12-Week Momentum-Sign Confluence on 8 Non-Major Bybit Perps (DOT/LTC/BCH/ETC/FIL/AAVE/XLM/TRX, 1-DAY, flat on disagreement, equal-risk legs)

An out-of-universe, out-of-venue breadth test of the one factory survivor family that keeps passing (lesson L219): the promoted Binance seven-major 1D/1W macro trend basket (997 trades, avg trade 3.22%, Sharpe 1.16).…

Hypothesis

An out-of-universe, out-of-venue breadth test of the one factory survivor family that keeps passing (lesson L219): the promoted Binance seven-major 1D/1W macro trend basket (997 trades, avg trade 3.22%, Sharpe 1.16). That strategy traded BTC/ETH/BNB/SOL/XRP/ADA/LINK on Binance USD-M. This hypothesis applies the SAME construction, with no ranking and no relative strength, to a DISJOINT universe of eight older mid-cap alts on a different venue, BYBIT linear USDT perps (3.0% of the corpus, under its 5% quota):……Show moreShow less

An out-of-universe, out-of-venue breadth test of the one factory survivor family that keeps passing (lesson L219): the promoted Binance seven-major 1D/1W macro trend basket (997 trades, avg trade 3.22%, Sharpe 1.16). That strategy traded BTC/ETH/BNB/SOL/XRP/ADA/LINK on Binance USD-M. This hypothesis applies the SAME construction, with no ranking and no relative strength, to a DISJOINT universe of eight older mid-cap alts on a different venue, BYBIT linear USDT perps (3.0% of the corpus, under its 5% quota): DOTUSDT, LTCUSDT, BCHUSDT, ETCUSDT, FILUSDT, AAVEUSDT, XLMUSDT and TRXUSDT on BYBIT. None of the seven promoted majors is included, so a pass is evidence the mechanism is not a property of those particular large caps. Each name is traded independently on its own absolute trend. Long when its fast (about 1 month) and slow (about 12 weeks) daily-close momentum signs are both positive, short when both are negative, flat when they disagree. The slow screen uses daily closes over a ~12-week window, standing in for the weekly bars, so the strategy subscribes to one bar type per leg (8 x 1-DAY). That keeps the verification bar load small. Several names (DOT, ATOM-class, ETC, LTC) have already died as SINGLE-NAME 4H/1D confluence tests. Those were faster (4H primary), single-instrument and needed per-name significance. This design holds trades for weeks, so each trade targets a multi-percent leg, and it pools eight weakly related trend legs into one book, the way the promoted basket did. Universe point-in-time: a leg is eligible only from its first Bybit daily bar plus warm-up (listed_since/universe_at). Bars start 2020-10 (LINK/LTC), 2020-12 (BCH), 2021-03 (DOT), 2021-05/07 (AAVE, FIL, ETC) and 2021-09 (XLM, TRX). A leg that lists later simply joins later, and a delisting closes the leg at the last price. Set parameters['point_in_time_universe']=True so later-listed legs do not clamp the window. Fills: market orders at the signal bar's close. On a 24/7 venue that equals the next bar's open, the platform's documented next_bar_open_fill equivalent. Protective exit: a reduce-only intrabar ATR trailing stop (_submit_stop_market) that triggers inside the bar in the platform's simulated venue. It is not an exchange-resting order, and the idea does not need offline protection. Risk control route (b): signal exit plus capped sizing, with no position above 25% of equity and gross exposure up to 100% at 1x leverage. The trailing stop is an additional protection, not route (a). Pure OHLCV for signals. Bybit funding is used only for cost accounting.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.