Hypotheses
BTC Daily Three White Soldiers Momentum Continuation Long with 200-SMA Bull Regime Filter
A long-only single-instrument 3-BAR CANDLESTICK CONTINUATION-PATTERN strategy on BTCUSDT perpetual futures using daily bars and OHLCV-only data, with a 200-SMA bull regime filter. The trigger is the classic 'Three…
Hypothesis
A long-only single-instrument 3-BAR CANDLESTICK CONTINUATION-PATTERN strategy on BTCUSDT perpetual futures using daily bars and OHLCV-only data, with a 200-SMA bull regime filter. The trigger is the classic 'Three White Soldiers' pattern documented by Steve Nison (Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, 1991). Three White Soldiers is a SPECIFIC 3-BAR TEMPORAL SEQUENCE indicating SUSTAINED buying pressure across three consecutive trading sessions: 3 consecutive bullish candles where each closes near its high,……Show moreShow less
A long-only single-instrument 3-BAR CANDLESTICK CONTINUATION-PATTERN strategy on BTCUSDT perpetual futures using daily bars and OHLCV-only data, with a 200-SMA bull regime filter. The trigger is the classic 'Three White Soldiers' pattern documented by Steve Nison (Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, 1991). Three White Soldiers is a SPECIFIC 3-BAR TEMPORAL SEQUENCE indicating SUSTAINED buying pressure across three consecutive trading sessions: 3 consecutive bullish candles where each closes near its high, each opens within the prior bar's body (no gaps signaling exhaustion), and each closes higher than the prior bar's close. This is mechanistically NOVEL within the portfolio AND COMPLEMENTARY to BnbDailyMorningStarReversalLong: Morning Star is a 3-bar REVERSAL pattern (bear → indecision → bull), while Three White Soldiers is a 3-bar CONTINUATION pattern (sustained bull). Together they cover the two primary 3-bar pattern archetypes. Three White Soldiers captures a fundamentally different microstructure than any existing portfolio strategy: it's NOT a regime gate (Golden Cross), NOT volume-confirmation (Vol Breakout), NOT volatility-compression (Inside Day), NOT a 1-bar rejection (Hammer), NOT a 2-bar reversal (Engulfing), NOT a count-based event (consecutive-down-day), NOT a continuous-statistic extreme (RSI/BB/VWAP), NOT a drawdown depth. It's a temporal momentum-CONFIRMATION pattern requiring 3 specific bars in sequence to show sustained directional commitment with no exhaustion gaps. The economic mechanism: each successive bullish close above the prior close represents fresh buyers entering the market AND prior shorts being forced to cover; the requirement that each bar opens WITHIN the prior body (not gapping up) eliminates parabolic-blow-off setups that frequently fail. BTC daily is chosen because (a) BTC has zero daily-timeframe strategy currently — this fills the asset+timeframe gap (BTC's existing 2 strategies are 4H Vol Breakout and Spot Drawdown), (b) BTC daily futures data path is empirically used by multiple in-pipeline strategies' regime filters and has been promoted for ETH Golden Cross etc., (c) BTC has the deepest institutional flow making 3-bar momentum patterns statistically more meaningful than on smaller-cap altcoins, (d) candlestick patterns have their canonical Nison-tested foundation at the daily timeframe. Only 3 explicit parameters (regime SMA period, body-to-range ratio threshold, stop-loss pct) — minimum-parameter-count for a 3-bar pattern.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.