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All hypotheses

Hypotheses

Open-Interest-Backed Trend Continuation, Long-Short (Single-Instrument ETHUSDT.BINANCE USD-M — Hold in the Direction of a Price Move ONLY When OPEN INTEREST Is EXPANDING = New Capital Is Backing the Move; Stand Aside / Exit When OI Contracts = Deleveraging Noise or Trend Exhaustion, 2-Parameter)

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, SINGLE-VENUE directional strategy on ETHUSDT.BINANCE USD-M whose signal is genuinely ORTHOGONAL to price — the RATE OF CHANGE of OPEN INTEREST (new capital entering vs positions…

Hypothesis

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, SINGLE-VENUE directional strategy on ETHUSDT.BINANCE USD-M whose signal is genuinely ORTHOGONAL to price — the RATE OF CHANGE of OPEN INTEREST (new capital entering vs positions closing), not a price-derived indicator. It is evidence-backed by the factory's OWN prior work: the abandoned COIN-M OI-deleveraging-FLUSH reversal was falsified because its event study (over every OI-covered ETHUSDT 1h bar, 2021-12→2026-07) showed the fade-on-OI-contraction gate is BACKWARDS and……Show moreShow less

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, SINGLE-VENUE directional strategy on ETHUSDT.BINANCE USD-M whose signal is genuinely ORTHOGONAL to price — the RATE OF CHANGE of OPEN INTEREST (new capital entering vs positions closing), not a price-derived indicator. It is evidence-backed by the factory's OWN prior work: the abandoned COIN-M OI-deleveraging-FLUSH reversal was falsified because its event study (over every OI-covered ETHUSDT 1h bar, 2021-12→2026-07) showed the fade-on-OI-contraction gate is BACKWARDS and value-subtracting — which is direct evidence that the OPPOSITE gate, riding moves that are accompanied by OI EXPANSION, is the value-ADDING direction. And the closely-related COIN-M OI-confirmed-trend hypothesis died NOT on its mechanism but purely on DATA: the COIN-M OI series has a 1,248-day hole. THIS hypothesis fixes exactly that by moving to ETHUSDT USD-M, whose OI is dense and continuous 2021→2026 (the very series that supported the flush event study). Economic premise: a price move accompanied by RISING open interest is backed by genuine new capital taking a side and tends to CONTINUE; a move on FLAT or FALLING OI is short-covering / deleveraging noise that fades. So we position with the move only while OI expands, and exit when OI rolls over (positions closing = trend exhaustion). This is a continuation family distinct from the dead forced-flow REVERSAL lines (cascade/ignition/absorption/flush), the dead positioning-contrarian line, and my own pending momentum-with-funding-regime and mean-reversion items (different feed, different mechanism). Data-safe: funding-free, single venue + single instrument on 4H bars → OHLCV and the dense USD-M OI feed are jointly available in Layer-3 (no cross-venue, options, liquidation, or holed COIN-M feed). Deliberately 2-parameter to resist the overfit deaths that dominate the log.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.