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Hypotheses

Funding-Gated Delta-Neutral Cash-and-Carry: Long BINANCE_SPOT / Short BINANCE USD-M Perp on 7 Point-in-Time 2020 Majors, Enter When 24h Funding > 3bp/8h, Exit on Funding Flip or 21-Day Clock (4H decision bars)

Restated from first principles from the FMZ 'OKX Funding Fee Hedge strategy' by Zero (https://www.fmz.com/strategy/520276, section 'Specific Strategy Ideas' items 1-4 plus 'Risk Analysis / Negative Rates'). The…

Hypothesis

Restated from first principles from the FMZ 'OKX Funding Fee Hedge strategy' by Zero (https://www.fmz.com/strategy/520276, section 'Specific Strategy Ideas' items 1-4 plus 'Risk Analysis / Negative Rates'). The mechanism kept: hold spot long + perp short with equal base quantity, so price exposure cancels and the book collects the funding that longs pay shorts. It opens only when funding exceeds a threshold and closes when funding turns negative. Three adaptations, all backed by a point-in-time pre-study on our……Show moreShow less

Restated from first principles from the FMZ 'OKX Funding Fee Hedge strategy' by Zero (https://www.fmz.com/strategy/520276, section 'Specific Strategy Ideas' items 1-4 plus 'Risk Analysis / Negative Rates'). The mechanism kept: hold spot long + perp short with equal base quantity, so price exposure cancels and the book collects the funding that longs pay shorts. It opens only when funding exceeds a threshold and closes when funding turns negative. Three adaptations, all backed by a point-in-time pre-study on our funding_rates table: (1) VENUE. The source names OKX. OKX funding in our DB starts 2022-01, and on OKX majors the gated rule fires almost only in 2024 (161 episodes, 85 of them in 2024, 1 in 2025), so the result would be a one-year concentration. Binance USD-M funding covers 2020-2026, including the 2020-21 bull run in which funding carry was paid. Hedge venue = BINANCE_SPOT (CASH, long-only), perp = BINANCE (USD-M). This is a cross-venue (two-suffix) hypothesis. (2) UNIVERSE. The source recommends 30+ coins with auto-screening. That hits lesson 173 (point-in-time top-N universes time out) and lesson 136 (thin names). Universe rule instead: the largest non-stablecoin coins by market cap on 2020-01-01 that list both a Binance spot USDT pair and a USD-M perp. That gives BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, LTC, BNB, XLM (7 names, 14 instruments). EOS met the rule but is excluded because its perp was delisted/renamed in 2025, which would kill the run with data_unavailable. This is disclosed as a mild survivorship choice. The universe was fixed from a 2020 snapshot, not selected on funding performance. (3) CADENCE. Decisions on 4H bars, since funding settles every 8h. There are no iceberg orders: a market order on both legs at the decision bar. PRE-STUDY (funding cash flow only, both legs taker, 0.30% round-trip cost per unit of hedged notional = spot 0.10%x2 + perp 0.05%x2). 7 names, 2020-2026: 189 episodes, mean funding collected 2.29% per episode, mean net after cost +1.99%, win rate ~0.9, mean hold 18 days. Episodes by year: 2020:71, 2021:77, 2022:0, 2023:7, 2024:34, 2025:0, 2026:0. The 8-name version including EOS gave t = 15.1 on per-episode net. KNOWN STRUCTURAL RISK, stated up front: funding on liquid majors has been compressed since 2025 (Binance mean ~0.3bp/8h on these names, 0 days above 3bp in 2026; the same on Hyperliquid and OKX majors). The rule is therefore flat through most of 2025-26, and the last-20% holdout (~mid-2025 onward) will likely have FEWER THAN 10 trades. That fails the hard holdout gate on regime absence, not on a losing edge. The analyst should read a flat holdout as 'no opportunity', and this hypothesis is submitted at priority 2 for exactly that reason. Expected flat state: ~75-80% of time flat per name, and the whole book is flat in 2022, 2025 and most of 2026.

Analysis

OKX资金费率套利策略|OKXFunding Fee Hedge strategy

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.