ETH Daily Open-Interest Percentile Long with 200-SMA Regime Filter

A long-only single-instrument carry-and-direction strategy on ETHUSDT perpetual futures using daily bars + open-interest data. This is a NEW mechanism class for ETH that uses a fundamentally different signal source than any existing pipeline strategy: OPEN INTEREST PERCENTILE rather than price-derived signals (EMA crosses, breakouts, vol regimes). The thesis: when ETH perp open interest is in the bottom 30% of its trailing 90-day distribution (RELATIVE percentile, NOT absolute threshold) AND ETH is above its 200-day SMA, leveraged-positioning is bearish-skewed (low OI = speculators absent, only structural holders) WHILE the long-term trend is intact. This combination historically resolves with catch-up rallies as positioning normalizes (leveraged longs re-enter, push price higher). The mechanism is structurally different from the failed ETH OI Divergence Contrarian Short (which was a SHORT strategy fading high OI buildup; this is a LONG strategy capturing low-OI bearish-positioning normalization) and from the failed BTC Negative Funding Carry (which used absolute threshold; this uses RELATIVE percentile that self-adapts to current OI regime). Importantly, this proposal directly responds to the recurring analyst recommendation across multiple BNB/SOL daily-trend abandonments: 'a fundamentally different signal mechanism (e.g., funding-rate or open-interest based, not price-only).' This proposal uses OI — exactly the recommended class. ETH-SPECIFIC empirical justification: ETH has the most dynamic OI structure of any crypto major due to (1) ETF inflows since 2024 producing cyclical leverage builds and unwinds, (2) DeFi staking demand creating non-leveraged structural holders distinct from speculative leverage, (3) Layer-2 and re-staking narratives driving leverage cycles. The relative percentile filter captures the regime extremes. Existing ETH strategies in pipeline use price-only signals (Golden Cross, 4H Volume Breakout, Spot Regime Hold). This adds an orthogonal data source. Single-dominant-filter design (OI percentile + 200-SMA), explicitly NOT a multi-condition AND-gate. Calibrated for ~10-20 entries/year via the always-firing percentile filter.