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Hypotheses

AVAX Binance USD-M Dual-Timeframe Momentum Confluence — Long-Short 4H Trend Aligned with the Daily Trend, Flat on Disagreement, ATR Trailing Exit (Single-Bar, 3-Parameter)

A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument, pure-price MOMENTUM-CONFLUENCE trend follower on AVAXUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perpetual), 4H single-bar construction. This is a deliberate FAIR-TEST of a premise the factory has already…

Hypothesis

A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument, pure-price MOMENTUM-CONFLUENCE trend follower on AVAXUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perpetual), 4H single-bar construction. This is a deliberate FAIR-TEST of a premise the factory has already flagged as promising-but-unproven-for-venue-reasons. My trail cleanly separates two groups: (a) choppy laggards XRP (Sharpe 0.28), DOGE (0.45, underperforms buy-hold), LTC (net-LOSING -36.5%) — FAIRLY tested on 6+ Binance years, genuinely NO edge; versus (b) strong-trending majors tested only on……Show moreShow less

A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument, pure-price MOMENTUM-CONFLUENCE trend follower on AVAXUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perpetual), 4H single-bar construction. This is a deliberate FAIR-TEST of a premise the factory has already flagged as promising-but-unproven-for-venue-reasons. My trail cleanly separates two groups: (a) choppy laggards XRP (Sharpe 0.28), DOGE (0.45, underperforms buy-hold), LTC (net-LOSING -36.5%) — FAIRLY tested on 6+ Binance years, genuinely NO edge; versus (b) strong-trending majors tested only on Hyperliquid's ~3.4y and abandoned SOLELY for insufficient history despite EXPLICITLY praised edge. AVAX-HL is the clearest example of (b): its reviewer wrote 'edge is genuinely distributed (kurtosis 6.57, skew 0.36, not an outlier mirage), positive years (2024 +11.5%, 2025 +42.4%), 13.5% drawdown, PF 1.57, decorrelated alpha' — killed only because HL's short single-regime window can't clear the significance gate. Binance USD-M has ~5y of AVAX history, which is exactly the fix that 'optimized' the ADA/BNB ports (they passed backtest review) and gives AVAX's demonstrated distributed edge a fair, significance-clearing test. AVAX is a strong-trending, high-beta major (wide per-trade fee margin), NOT a range-bound laggard. It uses the proven confluence mechanism behind the paper-stage BTC survivor (Sharpe 1.99). NOT a mean-reversion fade (L53), NOT a squeeze breakout (L54), NOT a channel breakout (outlier class), NOT a cross-sectional/ensemble basket (L52), NOT a market-neutral ratio (near-zero edge), NOT a NON-PRICE-feed gate (L46), NOT options/COIN-M (L50/L51). Fills the long-short gap (13.6% vs 86% long-only). To resist overfit (#1 killer, 308x) and verification bugs: single bar type, 3 params, fixed fast-EMA. Risk profile: ~1.5% equity risk/trade via ATR stop; vol-scaled notional = risk_budget / (atr_mult * ATR_4H) capped at 25% of equity*leverage; 2x leverage cap (reads self.config.leverage). Exactly 3 tunable parameters (slow/fast EMA ratio, daily-trend EMA length, ATR trailing multiple).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.