Hypotheses
Hyperliquid Altcoin Lottery-Premium Reversal Basket
Test whether altcoins with unusually large recent upside outliers subsequently underperform otherwise eligible altcoins with smaller upside outliers. Trade a dollar-neutral long/short pair selected from four fixed…
Hypothesis
Test whether altcoins with unusually large recent upside outliers subsequently underperform otherwise eligible altcoins with smaller upside outliers. Trade a dollar-neutral long/short pair selected from four fixed Hyperliquid perpetuals using synchronized 4-HOUR bars aggregated into UTC daily closes. Inspiration: Bali, Cakici and Whitelaw document a negative relationship between extreme positive past returns and subsequent stock returns in [Maxing Out: Stocks as Lotteries](https://www.nber.org/papers/w14804). Applying this mechanism to these crypto perpetuals is an untested extension, not a reproduction or an established crypto result. Execute market orders at the signal bar's close. Protective stops trigger intrabar in the platform; exchange-hosted protection is not required. No preliminary performance study is used.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.