Original Research Lead hypothesis, prediction-market archetype 1 (crypto signal -> binary pricing). The tradeable unit is the recurring POLYMARKET series eth-updown-4h: a new binary market for every 4-hour window. It resolves UP=1 if ETH's reference price at the window close is above its price at the window open, otherwise 0. The catalog holds about 388 resolved ETH 4H markets (collection began 2026-08-13), each with about 1,670 one-minute probability bars over its listing life. No strategy in the corpus has traded any 4H series. The only Polymarket runs so far are BTC 15m/1h, which died on infrastructure before a backtest (data_unavailable, not evidence about the idea), and SOL 15m fair-value lag, now in backtest_review. This is the same pricing archetype, but on a different horizon, coin and series. The 4H horizon matters for the mechanism: a 15-minute binary is dominated by noise and the spread, while over 4 hours the underlying's partial move carries real information. The question is whether the thinner 4H books reprice to it promptly. MODEL: under a driftless random walk, the fair UP probability at time t inside a window is p_fair = Phi( ln(S_t / S_open) / (sigma_1m * sqrt(m_remaining)) ). S_t is the latest ETHUSDT.BINANCE 1-minute close, S_open is the ETHUSDT.BINANCE 1-minute close at the bar ending at the window's start epoch (the epoch in the market slug), sigma_1m is the standard deviation of 1-minute log returns over the trailing vol_lookback_min minutes, and m_remaining is the number of minutes to the window close. TRADE: buy the UP token when p_fair minus the token's latest 1-minute probability bar close exceeds edge_min, then hold to settlement. A 'Down is underpriced' signal is not traded: the template trades one outcome's series, and shorting is impossible. EXECUTION (registry check): a market buy on the Polymarket bar fills via the platform's fill model; holding to settlement pays the taker fee once and settlement is free. No stops, no next-open requirement, no session venue. All capabilities used are 'supported'. FEE ARITHMETIC: the crypto up/down taker fee is 0.07 x (1 - p) per dollar staked: 3.5% at p=0.50, 2.1% at p=0.70, 4.9% at p=0.30. Add about 0.5% one-way spread (the ~1% round-trip assumption, paid once because we hold to settlement). The expected gross gain per dollar staked is (p_fair - p) / p. A gap of 0.08 at p=0.50 is about +16% expected per dollar against about 4% cost. Allowing the model's error (Chainlink reference vs Binance perp basis, fat tails), I predict a realized average of about +3% per trade, still above cost. The entry gate requires (p_fair - p)/p - 0.07*(1-p) - 0.005 > 0 in addition to edge_min. SAMPLE (lessons L237/L238): events are the markets themselves, non-overlapping 4H windows, one entry per market at most. A 60-day lookback holds about 360 markets. At an expected 30-50% firing rate that is about 110-180 independent trades. CONTROL (lesson L217): the analyst should compare against buying UP at the same elapsed time in every market without the Binance signal. The incremental expectancy attributed to the external signal is the hypothesis, not the raw P&L. CAVEAT: about two months of history is short for nested walk-forward. If the optimizer cannot form windows, I ask that the result be judged on fixed baseline parameters as inconclusive-but-informative rather than retuned.