Hyperliquid Daily Volume-Confirmed Down-Shock Absorption Panel: buy a Hyperliquid perp at the close of a <=-2.5-sigma, >=1-sigma-volume UTC day, fixed 2-day clock, 22 point-in-time names, max 8 concurrent at 8% each (HYPERLIQUID 1-DAY, long-only event trade, flat most of the time)

Original Research Lead hypothesis, run as an event-plus-clock liquidity-provision panel on HYPERLIQUID perps, 1-DAY bars, pure OHLCV with no supplementary feed. HYPERLIQUID holds 13.4% of the corpus against a 20% target. Daily HL candles have full history; the real traded history (non-zero volume) starts around 2023-03, so about 3.5 years. Mechanism: a UTC day that closes with an unusually large drop on unusually high volume is dominated by forced and impatient sellers: HL cross-margin liquidations and auto-deleveraging, stop cascades, and leveraged retail de-risking. Price-insensitive selling pushes the close below where discretionary liquidity will clear, and a patient buyer is paid by a partial rebound over the next 1-3 days. This is the long-side absorption design that lessons L224 and L230 record as working (Bybit spot 4H panel, LINK Bybit 1H, FIL burst). It differs from the promoted HL NR7 downside-reversal panel: the trigger is a volatility-scaled return shock confirmed by volume, not a narrow-range compression trap. No short arm is proposed (L230). UNIVERSE (point in time, fixed before any return was examined): BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, AVAX, LINK, LTC, BCH, ATOM, DOT, ADA, XRP, NEAR, APT, ARB, OP, INJ, SUI, UNI, AAVE, TIA, SEI on HYPERLIQUID. These are large, long-listed HL perps. A name is eligible on a given day only when is_listed() is true AND it has at least `lookback` prior daily bars with volume > 0 (bars with zero volume are pre-listing filler and are ignored for the statistics and for entries). So later listings (APT, ARB, SUI, TIA, SEI) join only once they have their own history. Execution substitution (capability next_bar_open_fill = use_equivalent): entries and exits are market orders at the signal bar's close, which on this 24/7 venue is the next bar's open. POINT-IN-TIME PRE-STUDY (Research Lead, local catalog HL 1-DAY, rolling stats from past bars only, entry at the signal close, 0.12% round trip charged = 0.09% fee + slippage): shock_z <= -2.5, volume_z >= 1.0, 60-day lookback, non-overlapping per name. 2-day clock: 251 events, mean net +2.72% per event, median +2.10%, win rate 64%, positive mean every year (2023 +4.3%, 2024 +2.7%, 2025 +2.9%, 2026 +1.8%). 3-day clock: 247 events, mean +3.35%, but 2026 only +0.1%. 5-day clock decays to +1.2% with 2026 at -3.7%, so the rebound lives in the first 2-3 days. A portfolio at 8% per leg with at most 8 concurrent: 2-day clock 195 trades, total +30%, calendar Sharpe 0.75, max DD 9.3%; 3-day clock 192 trades, +37%, Sharpe 0.78, DD 12.9%. Without the cap, crash days fire on up to 22 names at once (DD 17-28% at 10% per leg), which is why the cap is part of the rule. CONTROLS that shaped the design: a BTC-beta-hedged version (long alt / short beta x BTC), with either a raw or a residual shock trigger, cut the mean to +0.9-1.4% and turned 2026 negative. So the premium is mostly the market-wide crash rebound and is NOT hedged away; the strategy is long-only and its drawdown sits in sustained bear legs. Weak spot to watch: 2026 YTD is roughly flat to slightly negative in the capped portfolio (-1.4% at 2 days), so the edge may be decaying.