Capitulation-Close Next-Day Reversal, Frozen-Rule Breadth Test on a Disjoint Binance SPOT Universe: buy a spot alt at the close of a UTC day whose range is >=1.5x its 20-day mean range AND that closes in the bottom 15% of that range, fixed 1-day clock (20 rule-selected 2020-era alts incl. later-delisted names, BINANCE_SPOT 1-DAY, long-only cash, 8% per leg, flat ~97% per name)

Original Research Lead hypothesis, not seeded. This is a frozen-rule out-of-universe and out-of-venue breadth test (L227/L228: a transfer is a fresh test) of the promoted 'Capitulation-Close Next-Day Reversal on OKX Spot' panel (472 trades, average trade 1.50%, Sharpe 1.10). That panel is promoted on 12 OKX spot names. This test keeps its rule and clock frozen and runs it on 20 Binance spot names that neither it nor the two in-flight Binance spot panels use, with history back to 2019 that covers the 2019 chop, the 2021 top and the full 2022 bear. EVENT: a completed 1-DAY bar whose high-low range is at least range_mult x the mean range of the previous atr_len bars (event bar excluded), AND whose close-location value CLV = (close - low)/(high - low) is <= clv_max. It is a range-expansion day with sellers still in control at the close. ACTION: buy at that bar's close and sell at the close hold_days bars later. MECHANISM: a wide day that closes on its low is the footprint of forced, price-insensitive selling (stop cascades, liquidations of levered longs on the perp venues spilling into spot, panic market sells) that ran right up to the UTC close. On spot that flow is exhausted at the print, liquidity providers who widened during the cascade come back, and the next session mean-reverts part of the overshoot. HOW IT DIFFERS FROM BINANCE SPOT WORK ALREADY IN FLIGHT: (1) the NR7 failed-downside-break panel (DOT/ATOM/FIL/ETC/BCH/UNI/NEAR/TRX/XLM/AAVE) needs a prior compression day; (2) the 4H capitulation-absorption panel (EOS/TRX/XTZ/VET/ETC/ZEC/XLM/NEO/DASH/XMR/ONT/MATIC/QTUM/ALGO/BCH) and the regime-gated daily down-shock panel trigger on a <=-k-sigma close-to-close RETURN plus volume. On the OKX source only 32% of capitulation-close events were also <=-2.5-sigma return days, so this is a close-location trigger, not a return shock. The abandoned Effort-Without-Result panel needed a SMALL body on high volume; this needs a WIDE range closing at its low, the opposite candle. UNIVERSE (pre-registered rule, not chosen by performance; written before any return was examined on these names): every Binance spot USDT pair whose daily bars start on or before 2020-06-30 and that has at least 150 daily bars in calendar 2020, ranked by total 2020 quote volume (close x volume). Excluded: BTC, ETH, BNB (concentration and exchange token), stablecoins, fiat and wrapped/gold tokens, leveraged UP/DOWN tokens, and every name already used by the OKX source panel (ADA ATOM AVAX BCH DOGE DOT ETC FIL LINK LTC SOL XRP) or by the two Binance spot sibling panels (UNI NEAR TRX XLM AAVE EOS XTZ VET ZEC NEO DASH XMR ONT MATIC QTUM ALGO). The top 20 by 2020 quote volume are: BAND, OMG, ZIL, WAVES, THETA, IOST, KAVA, BAT, LEND, ICX, COMP, REN, BTT, ZRX, WRX, ERD, TFUEL, IOTA, ANKR, KNC. Several later delisted or migrated (LEND and ERD in 2020, BTT in 2022, WAVES, OMG and REN later). They are kept on purpose to limit survivorship bias. Set point_in_time_universe so each leg trades only while is_listed() is true, never opens a position within 3 bars of its delisting, and needs at least atr_len+1 prior bars with volume > 0; the base template closes a position at a delisting at the last price. RESEARCH LEAD PRE-STUDY (Binance spot daily bars, close-to-close, events non-overlapping per name with a 3-bar refractory, net of the 0.20% spot round trip; used to size the prediction, not to select the rule). Frozen rule range_mult 1.5, atr_len 20, clv_max 0.15: n = 955 events on 434 distinct entry dates (L238: ~2.2 names per date, so the evidence is the 434 dates, not 955 trades). Net 1-day forward return mean +1.48%, median +1.07%; 3-day mean +0.81%, so the 1-day clock of the source is kept. Equal-weight per-date mean +0.91%, t = 1.62 over 434 dates. By year (events, net 1-day mean): 2019 63/+0.12%, 2020 116/+5.08%, 2021 103/+2.79%, 2022 225/+1.77%, 2023 134/+0.18%, 2024 84/-0.97%, 2025 117/-0.18%, 2026 104/+1.86%. HONEST CAVEAT: the edge is concentrated in 2020-2022 and was negative in 2024 and slightly negative in 2025, so the walk-forward and the 2025-26 holdout may well come back non-significant. That decay is exactly what this breadth test should expose, and a non-significant result is an informative answer for the promoted OKX panel. Approximate capped book (8% of equity per event, at most 8 concurrent, 1-day hold): 885 trades, total about +121%, max drawdown about 16.8%; yearly 2019 +0.5%, 2020 +38.9%, 2021 +24.3%, 2022 +18.8%, 2023 +0.2%, 2024 -5.7%, 2025 -1.5%, 2026 YTD +13.9%. The equal-weight buy-and-hold of these names drew down well over 80% in the same span (L170/L224 comparison for a long-only design). EXECUTION: daily bars only. next_bar_open_fill has status use_equivalent: entries and exits are market orders at the signal bar's close, which on this 24/7 venue is the next bar's open price. No stop orders. Each name is traded independently, at most one position per instrument; this is an event panel, not a ranked or neutral book. Please report results split by (a) whether the event day was also a <=-2.5-sigma return day and (b) calendar year, so the analyst can see the incremental part and the decay. Parameters are the OKX source's values, frozen as the baseline.