Skip to content
All hypotheses

Hypotheses

COIN-M BTC Open-Interest-Confirmed Time-Series Momentum, Long-Short (BTCUSD_PERP.BINANCE_CM Inverse Perp, Daily Bars, Trade the Sign of ~50-Day Trailing Return ONLY When Rising Open Interest Confirms New Positioning, ATR-Trailing Exit, Vol-Scaled Size, 3-Parameter)

A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument, directional trend follower on the BTC-margined COIN-M inverse perpetual (BTCUSD_PERP.BINANCE_CM). This is NOT another Binance USD-M clone and NOT a beta-neutral/pairs reformulation…

Hypothesis

A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument, directional trend follower on the BTC-margined COIN-M inverse perpetual (BTCUSD_PERP.BINANCE_CM). This is NOT another Binance USD-M clone and NOT a beta-neutral/pairs reformulation (L95/L96) — it is the ONE mechanism family that survives this factory (outright directional momentum on a deep-liquidity major) deliberately routed to the lowest-fee crypto venue (COIN-M ~0.06% RT vs USD-M ~0.10%) to buy fee headroom, and given a structural confirmation signal (open interest) that……Show moreShow less

A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument, directional trend follower on the BTC-margined COIN-M inverse perpetual (BTCUSD_PERP.BINANCE_CM). This is NOT another Binance USD-M clone and NOT a beta-neutral/pairs reformulation (L95/L96) — it is the ONE mechanism family that survives this factory (outright directional momentum on a deep-liquidity major) deliberately routed to the lowest-fee crypto venue (COIN-M ~0.06% RT vs USD-M ~0.10%) to buy fee headroom, and given a structural confirmation signal (open interest) that recently advanced on USD-M (DogeOpenInterestConfirmedTrendContinuationLS, SolPriceOpenInterestQuadrantTrendLS). The primary signal is the SIGN of the ~50-day trailing return on daily bars. The trade is only TAKEN when open interest is RISING over the confirmation window — i.e. new money/positioning is entering as price trends, which distinguishes a genuine trend from a low-conviction drift or a short-covering pop. When OI is FLAT or FALLING while price trends, the trend is being driven by position unwind (exhaustion) rather than fresh conviction, and the strategy stands flat. Positions are volatility-scaled (target constant risk via ATR) and protected by a Chandelier/ATR-trailing stop. Exactly 3 tunable parameters (momentum lookback, OI-confirmation lookback, ATR-stop multiple) to resist the overfit graveyard (380 deaths). COIN-M inverse means PnL is BTC-denominated — a genuine BTC-specific edge for holders who want to compound a trend-following overlay in BTC terms, which is why BTC (over-mined on USD-M) is the RIGHT and defensible instrument on this specific, under-mined venue.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.