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Hypotheses

ETH Deribit Monthly Defined-Risk Short Put-Spread VRP + Put-Skew Harvester (Bull Put Spread, IV-Rank Gated, Trend-Filtered, Capped Tail)

A defined-risk, premium-harvesting options strategy on ETH at Deribit (2nd-most-liquid crypto options market, full greeks/IV history in catalog). Each monthly cycle it sells an out-of-the-money PUT and buys a…

Hypothesis

A defined-risk, premium-harvesting options strategy on ETH at Deribit (2nd-most-liquid crypto options market, full greeks/IV history in catalog). Each monthly cycle it sells an out-of-the-money PUT and buys a further-OTM protective PUT below it — a BULL PUT SPREAD (vertical) — collecting net credit with a hard-capped maximum loss (spread width minus credit). The edge harvested is TWO structural premia stacked: (1) the volatility risk premium (Deribit ETH implied vol persistently exceeds realized), and (2) the……Show moreShow less

A defined-risk, premium-harvesting options strategy on ETH at Deribit (2nd-most-liquid crypto options market, full greeks/IV history in catalog). Each monthly cycle it sells an out-of-the-money PUT and buys a further-OTM protective PUT below it — a BULL PUT SPREAD (vertical) — collecting net credit with a hard-capped maximum loss (spread width minus credit). The edge harvested is TWO structural premia stacked: (1) the volatility risk premium (Deribit ETH implied vol persistently exceeds realized), and (2) the PUT-SKEW premium — crypto puts trade at a persistent implied-vol premium to equidistant calls because of chronic downside-hedging demand, so systematically selling OTM put spreads monetizes overpriced downside insurance. This is mechanistically DISTINCT from the factory's symmetric-vol Deribit structures (short strangle, iron condor, iron fly): those harvest two-sided vol around ATM; this isolates the richly-priced DOWNSIDE wing. It is a legitimate structural extension of the BTC short-put VRP expression (which reached optimize-class) — VRP and put-skew are market-structure properties present in every liquid options market, not an asset-idiosyncratic momentum quirk, so the BTC→ETH transfer is principled (unlike the dead single-alt continuation ports). Defined-risk wings cap the crash-through-strike loss that blows up naked puts. Monthly tenor keeps frequency low (~12 cycles/yr) so the ~0.06% RT × 2-4 legs fee is trivial vs the credit. Sizing is defined-risk-relative (max loss per spread capped at ~2% of equity). ~4 parameters at robust round values to resist overfitting.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.