ZEC Venue-Local Turnover Shock Reversal

Hypothesis

Reframe the failed premium arbitrage as a directional test of venue-local speculative pressure. Use synchronized 4-HOUR bars for ZECUSD.HYPERLIQUID, traded long or short, and ZECUSDT.BYBIT, signal only. Fade substantial ZEC moves when Hyperliquid's normalized turnover exceeds Bybit's. Remove the absolute price-gap requirement and passive paired entries. Market orders execute at the signal-bar close, the supported equivalent of next-bar-open execution on continuous venues. Protective stops trigger intrabar in the platform. Evaluate all common available history without assuming this listing has 2.3 years. Baselines: move_bars=6, activity_lookback=120, shock_pct=3.0, activity_ratio=1.25, max_hold_bars=18. Predicted frequency is 25–60 trades annually, unmeasured. No performance pre-study was run.