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Hypotheses

DOT 4H Donchian Channel Breakout with Rising Trend Filter Long-Only (Futures, OHLCV)

Extends the analyst-validated Donchian-with-trend-filter template (BNB iter-2 PROMOTED at Sharpe 5.95) to DOT (Polkadot) as the 8th asset in the cross-asset stack of second-tier-liquidity crypto assets. Per the…

Hypothesis

Extends the analyst-validated Donchian-with-trend-filter template (BNB iter-2 PROMOTED at Sharpe 5.95) to DOT (Polkadot) as the 8th asset in the cross-asset stack of second-tier-liquidity crypto assets. Per the analyst's most recent refined heuristic: 'high-liquidity-arbitrage-resistant assets work for breakouts; over-efficient majors don't.' DOT fits this profile cleanly — established L1 with $5-10B daily perp volume but NOT in the top-tier over-arbitraged group (BTC, ETH, AVAX where Donchian failed at Sharpe ~0.09). DOT shares the same liquidity tier and breakout-receptiveness as the validated assets (BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, LINK, DOGE, LTC). The mechanism: enter long on a 4H high-channel breakout ONLY when the higher-timeframe trend is confirmed rising (SMA50 > SMA200 AND SMA50 slope positive over last 5 bars). This filters out the false-breakout regime where Donchian historically fails. Capital deployment scales with signal strength (breakout magnitude × trend strength). EXPLICIT 4-HOUR SPEC — do NOT translate to 6H/8H/12H/1D bars; the cross-asset validation is timeframe-specific.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.