Contrarian BTC long on extreme negative funding spikes

Hypothesis

Empirical study of 7,166 Binance BTCUSDT 8h funding settlements (2020-2026) shows BTC systematically PUMPS after negative funding spikes, not dumps (short-squeeze / mean-reversion). Bottom-1% funding events (fr < ~-0.017%) are followed by +1.30% mean at 8h, +2.25% at 24h, +4.10% at 72h with a 72% 72h win rate; Spearman corr(funding, fwd return) is negative across all horizons. Signal: go LONG BTC when funding prints below its ~1st percentile at settlement, hold 24-72h, exit on time-stop or mean-reversion target. Route to a low-fee futures/perp venue (HYPERLIQUID ~0.09% or Binance USD-M ~0.10% round-trip) since it needs shorts-free leverage and the edge is funding-based. Caveats to validate: only 72 extreme events in 6.5y likely cluster around 2020/2022 capitulation (regime risk); median move ~60% of mean so size to the median; needs walk-forward + holdout to confirm out-of-sample. Entry uses funding known AT settlement (no lookahead).