Hyperliquid Altcoin Upside-Jump Concentration Premium: Weekly Long–Short Basket

Hypothesis

Derived by the Research Lead from Bhavika Balani's Probability Trading: Understanding, Formula, Application, Types, and Properties: operationalize empirical return-distribution analysis as a test of lottery-like upside-jump concentration. Source: https://blog.quantinsti.com/probability-trading/. The article motivates studying return distributions; it does not propose this trading rule. On synchronized 4-HOUR bars across six Hyperliquid perpetuals, buy assets whose positive returns are broadly distributed and short assets whose positive returns are concentrated in a few jumps. Hold a dollar-balanced basket for seven days. All decisions and market orders occur at completed signal-bar closes. Protective stops trigger intrabar through platform matching; exchange-hosted protection is not required. No funding income is assumed or credited.