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Hypotheses

BTCUSD COIN-M Perpetual 1H Volatility-Contraction-Expansion Long-Short (3-Parameter, Pure OHLCV, BTC-Margined Low-Fee Venue)

1H long-short trend-emergence strategy on BTCUSD_PERP.BINANCE_CM (BTC-margined inverse perpetual). Targets the documented volatility-contraction → expansion pattern: low realized-vol regimes precede directional…

Hypothesis

1H long-short trend-emergence strategy on BTCUSD_PERP.BINANCE_CM (BTC-margined inverse perpetual). Targets the documented volatility-contraction → expansion pattern: low realized-vol regimes precede directional breakouts more often than chance. This is the analyst-sanctioned salvage path for the failed BNB Spot Daily Bollinger Squeeze ('BB squeeze mechanism is NOT dead as a concept — possible salvage paths: 4H or 1H bars, 10× more trades'). Key structural differentiators vs failed-pattern lookalikes: (1)……Show moreShow less

1H long-short trend-emergence strategy on BTCUSD_PERP.BINANCE_CM (BTC-margined inverse perpetual). Targets the documented volatility-contraction → expansion pattern: low realized-vol regimes precede directional breakouts more often than chance. This is the analyst-sanctioned salvage path for the failed BNB Spot Daily Bollinger Squeeze ('BB squeeze mechanism is NOT dead as a concept — possible salvage paths: 4H or 1H bars, 10× more trades'). Key structural differentiators vs failed-pattern lookalikes: (1) PATH-DEPENDENT entry — vol compresses, THEN we wait for an ATR-multiple directional confirmation move BEFORE entering. This is mechanistically distinct from the failed ETH 1H vol-regime-gated momentum (snapshot z-score entry, no path dependence) and from the failed BNB BB Squeeze (entered on first compression-then-break tick). (2) BINANCE_CM venue (1.1% actual vs target ≥5%) — lowest-fee venue in the factory (~0.06% RT vs USD-M 0.10%, Spot 0.20%, HL 0.09%), giving 40% more friction headroom than USD-M and enabling 1H turnover that would be marginal elsewhere. (3) Long-short structure fills the under-represented direction bucket (12.1% vs target ≥45%). (4) Only 3 tunable parameters — well below the 5-param ceiling the analyst recommended after the DOGE 4H Triple-Filter overfit failure. Trade frequency math: ~30-50 vol-compression-then-expansion events/year per side = 60-100 trades/year. With 6+ years of BINANCE_CM data → 360-600 total trades → 24-40 OOS trades per walk-forward window, comfortably above the empirically-validated 5-trade-per-window floor that abandoned daily-alt-breakout strategies. Fee drag: 100 trades × 0.06% RT = 6%/year — easily absorbed by 1.5-2.5% per-trade target.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.