ETH Options-Uncertainty Repricing with Spot-Confirmed Direction on COIN-M

Hypothesis

Original Research Lead hypothesis: test whether an abrupt increase in ETH options-implied uncertainty, accompanied by a material same-direction move in ETH spot, predicts directional continuation over the following 72 hours. Trade ETHUSD_PERP.BINANCE_CM long or short; ETHUSDT.BINANCE_SPOT is an untraded confirmation source. Use UTC-aligned 4-HOUR bars and the point-in-time supplementary DVOL_ETH series. This trades directional information after an options repricing event, not options, variance-premium levels, an ETH/BTC ratio, or volatility-state stop-and-reverse. Continuous-market orders execute at the signal bar close, the registry-approved equivalent of next-bar-open execution. Inverse sizing and platform-matched intrabar protective stops are supported. No exchange-hosted protection, hedge mode, selectable same-bar policy or latency advantage is required. All return and event-rate figures below are preregistered predictions, not measurements; no preliminary backtest was performed.