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Hypotheses

ADA 4H Two-Bar Sequential Higher-High Breakout Long (Sequence-Based Structural Signal)

A long-only, single-instrument, single-timeframe strategy on ADAUSDT.BINANCE 4H bars (the ONLY consistently-fresh bar type per the persistent audit_stale pattern affecting all other Binance futures bars). Implements a…

Hypothesis

A long-only, single-instrument, single-timeframe strategy on ADAUSDT.BINANCE 4H bars (the ONLY consistently-fresh bar type per the persistent audit_stale pattern affecting all other Binance futures bars). Implements a NEW structural mechanism not yet tried: TWO-BAR SEQUENTIAL HIGHER-HIGH BREAKOUT. The mechanism: enter long when (a) the current bar's high exceeds the prior bar's high AND (b) the prior bar's high exceeded ITS prior bar's high — i.e., two consecutive bars of higher highs — AND (c) the current bar……Show moreShow less

A long-only, single-instrument, single-timeframe strategy on ADAUSDT.BINANCE 4H bars (the ONLY consistently-fresh bar type per the persistent audit_stale pattern affecting all other Binance futures bars). Implements a NEW structural mechanism not yet tried: TWO-BAR SEQUENTIAL HIGHER-HIGH BREAKOUT. The mechanism: enter long when (a) the current bar's high exceeds the prior bar's high AND (b) the prior bar's high exceeded ITS prior bar's high — i.e., two consecutive bars of higher highs — AND (c) the current bar closes above a 20-bar Donchian high AND (d) close > sma_100 (trend filter). This is a SEQUENCE-BASED signal (two consecutive HH events) that's mechanically distinct from: (i) single-bar Donchian breakout (which fires on any single new high), (ii) volume-confirmed breakout (uses volume, not bar-sequence), (iii) regime filters (no smoothed indicators), (iv) absorption/reclaim patterns (the failed mechanism class). The 'two consecutive HH' requirement is a structural Dow-Theory-derived signal quantified — it filters out single-bar wicks while preserving fast-firing trade frequency. Expected trade count: ~40-70 trades/year on ADA 4H (sufficient for walk-forward statistical power without rare-event mismatch). The simplicity — three structural conditions, no regime overlays, no oscillator math — directly addresses the analyst's recurring 'over-filtered strategies fail walk-forward' diagnosis. Single-instrument, single-timeframe, no secondary dependencies, on the bar type the developer always defaults to.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.