Skip to content
All hypotheses

Hypotheses

OKX Alt-Perp Cross-Sectional MAX-Effect (Lottery-Demand) Reversal, Dollar-Neutral Long-Short: Short the 2 Coins with the Highest Recent Extreme Daily Returns, Long the 2 with the Lowest (8 OKX USDT Swaps, Daily Bars, Weekly Rebalance, 3-Parameter)

A dollar-neutral, cross-sectional, long-short panel strategy on OKX USDT perpetual swaps. It uses daily OHLCV only. OKX is 2.4% of experiments against a target of at least 5%. The universe is fixed. All eight coins are…

Hypothesis

A dollar-neutral, cross-sectional, long-short panel strategy on OKX USDT perpetual swaps. It uses daily OHLCV only. OKX is 2.4% of experiments against a target of at least 5%. The universe is fixed. All eight coins are listed on OKX, have daily history from 2020 and have stayed liquid. They were chosen by listing date, not by performance: LINKUSDT.OKX, BCHUSDT.OKX, ADAUSDT.OKX, ETCUSDT.OKX, ATOMUSDT.OKX, XLMUSDT.OKX, TRXUSDT.OKX and AVAXUSDT.OKX. The signal is the MAX effect (Bali, Cakici & Whitelaw 2011, 'Maxing……Show moreShow less

A dollar-neutral, cross-sectional, long-short panel strategy on OKX USDT perpetual swaps. It uses daily OHLCV only. OKX is 2.4% of experiments against a target of at least 5%. The universe is fixed. All eight coins are listed on OKX, have daily history from 2020 and have stayed liquid. They were chosen by listing date, not by performance: LINKUSDT.OKX, BCHUSDT.OKX, ADAUSDT.OKX, ETCUSDT.OKX, ATOMUSDT.OKX, XLMUSDT.OKX, TRXUSDT.OKX and AVAXUSDT.OKX. The signal is the MAX effect (Bali, Cakici & Whitelaw 2011, 'Maxing out: stocks as lotteries'; also reported in crypto cross-sections). For each coin, MAX_i is the mean of its `max_days` largest daily close-to-close returns over the trailing `max_lookback` daily bars. Retail traders looking for lottery-like payoffs bid up the coins with the highest MAX, and those coins then underperform. Levered retail is the marginal perp buyer on alts. The coins with the lowest MAX get little attention and outperform. Every `rebalance_days` daily bars (fixed at 7), rank the eligible coins by MAX. The target is short the top 2 and long the bottom 2, each leg 15% of equity notional: gross 60%, net 0, leverage 1. A leg whose target has not changed is not traded, so only rank changes cause orders. This roughly halves turnover. This is not a momentum or trend bet. MAX looks at the tail of the return distribution and is only weakly correlated with trailing return. It also differs from the live XRP skewness strategy, which is a time-series bet on one coin. This one is a relative, market-neutral bet across eight coins on a different venue. Execution: decisions are made at the daily bar close, and market orders fill at that close. On a 24/7 venue that is the faithful equivalent of a next-bar-open fill; this substitution follows the capability registry. Protection: each leg carries an intrabar protective stop (a reduce-only stop-market) at `stop_atr_mult` x 20-day ATR from entry. The platform matches it inside the bar in backtest and paper, and live trading mirrors those fills. The stop matters most for the short legs, because the lottery names are the ones most prone to squeezes. A stopped coin cannot re-enter until the next rebalance. The signal needs no funding feed; the engine charges funding in PnL as usual. Platform defaults cover anything not stated here.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.