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All hypotheses

Hypotheses

AVAX Spot Capitulation-Exhaustion Accumulation, Long-Only (BINANCE_SPOT, 4h Bars, Buy When Perp AGGRESSIVE-SELL Order-Flow Spikes to Panic Extremes and Then Recedes — Sellers Exhausting Into a Drawdown; Non-Price Taker-Flow Feed, 3-Parameter)

A LONG-ONLY, cash-account (no leverage, no liquidation) accumulation strategy that trades AVAXUSDT on BINANCE_SPOT, timed by a genuine NON-PRICE order-flow feed: the aggressive taker SELL fraction from the…

Hypothesis

A LONG-ONLY, cash-account (no leverage, no liquidation) accumulation strategy that trades AVAXUSDT on BINANCE_SPOT, timed by a genuine NON-PRICE order-flow feed: the aggressive taker SELL fraction from the AVAXUSDT.BINANCE perp metrics (Binance VISION daily 'metrics' files, sum_taker_long_short_vol_ratio column — MULTI-YEAR back to ~2020 at 5-min granularity, NOT the 30-day API). The insight is capitulation-exhaustion: a spot drawdown accompanied by a spike in aggressive market-SELLING that then RECEDES marks……Show moreShow less

A LONG-ONLY, cash-account (no leverage, no liquidation) accumulation strategy that trades AVAXUSDT on BINANCE_SPOT, timed by a genuine NON-PRICE order-flow feed: the aggressive taker SELL fraction from the AVAXUSDT.BINANCE perp metrics (Binance VISION daily 'metrics' files, sum_taker_long_short_vol_ratio column — MULTI-YEAR back to ~2020 at 5-min granularity, NOT the 30-day API). The insight is capitulation-exhaustion: a spot drawdown accompanied by a spike in aggressive market-SELLING that then RECEDES marks forced/panic selling drying up, and spot mean-reverts up. This deliberately fills the under-represented BINANCE_SPOT bucket (11.5% vs ≥15% target, and the highest-survival venue in the portfolio) with a mechanism NOT already deployed. It is distinct from every recent failure and pending item: NOT pure OHLCV (L30 — the taker-sell fraction is a separate order-flow series), NOT funding-direction (L13) or carry (L28 — spot earns no funding, this is pure directional accumulation), NOT the SolTakerFlow perp z-divergence sibling (this is SPOT, LONG-ONLY, exhaustion-of-selling — opposite construction), NOT positioning-fade (EthRetail uses the L/S account ratio, not taker volume), NOT OI-flush (the SolOI-flush reversal that lost -13% on SOL — different feed, different venue, long-only recovery hold vs symmetric perp fade), NOT liquidations (L3 broken feed), NOT a basket (L12), NOT options (L29), NOT HL (L11). 3 parameters to resist overfit; targets 50-120 trades over the AVAX spot history.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.