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Hypotheses

ETH Open Interest Divergence Contrarian Short (Daily)

A minimal short-biased single-instrument contrarian strategy on ETHUSDT perpetual futures using daily (1D) bars and open interest as the auxiliary signal. The hypothesis is that when open interest builds rapidly during…

Hypothesis

A minimal short-biased single-instrument contrarian strategy on ETHUSDT perpetual futures using daily (1D) bars and open interest as the auxiliary signal. The hypothesis is that when open interest builds rapidly during a price advance (i.e., OI rises >X% over N days while price also rises >Y%), the rally is being driven primarily by leveraged long entries rather than spot accumulation — a textbook setup for a long-squeeze unwind. The strategy enters short on this divergence and covers when either OI mean-reverts……Show moreShow less

A minimal short-biased single-instrument contrarian strategy on ETHUSDT perpetual futures using daily (1D) bars and open interest as the auxiliary signal. The hypothesis is that when open interest builds rapidly during a price advance (i.e., OI rises >X% over N days while price also rises >Y%), the rally is being driven primarily by leveraged long entries rather than spot accumulation — a textbook setup for a long-squeeze unwind. The strategy enters short on this divergence and covers when either OI mean-reverts (deleveraging completes) or price drops below a defined floor. Distinct from every existing pipeline strategy (none use OI) and every failed hypothesis (none used OI; no failure was a divergence/squeeze setup; no failure was a contrarian short on ETH). Deliberately uses ETH rather than SOL/XRP/BNB because (1) ETH has the cleanest, deepest OI history at scale, (2) prior funding-based shorts on SOL/XRP failed, and (3) ETH's perpetual market is the second-most-traded crypto perp globally — squeeze dynamics are highly visible. Three parameters total: OI rise threshold, price rise threshold, and lookback window.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.