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Hypotheses

ETH–SOL Cointegration Stat-Arb — Market-Neutral Spread Mean-Reversion on LARGE Residual Deviations, Strict Equal-Risk Notional Cap (ETHUSDT.BINANCE + SOLUSDT.BINANCE USD-M, 3-Parameter)

A MARKET-NEUTRAL statistical-arbitrage pair on two highly-correlated large L1 majors, ETH and SOL, trading the MEAN-REVERSION of their cointegration RESIDUAL — a different family from everything that has been colliding…

Hypothesis

A MARKET-NEUTRAL statistical-arbitrage pair on two highly-correlated large L1 majors, ETH and SOL, trading the MEAN-REVERSION of their cointegration RESIDUAL — a different family from everything that has been colliding and dying (momentum-confluence ports, regime-gated momentum, single-name fades, carry). ETH and SOL co-move strongly (rolling correlation typically ~0.75-0.85) because they share the smart-contract-L1 beta, but their RELATIVE valuation oscillates around a slowly-moving equilibrium as capital……Show moreShow less

A MARKET-NEUTRAL statistical-arbitrage pair on two highly-correlated large L1 majors, ETH and SOL, trading the MEAN-REVERSION of their cointegration RESIDUAL — a different family from everything that has been colliding and dying (momentum-confluence ports, regime-gated momentum, single-name fades, carry). ETH and SOL co-move strongly (rolling correlation typically ~0.75-0.85) because they share the smart-contract-L1 beta, but their RELATIVE valuation oscillates around a slowly-moving equilibrium as capital rotates between them. When the residual (SOL priced relative to its ETH-implied fair value via a rolling hedge ratio) stretches to a LARGE z-score, it reverts. This is explicitly built to clear the two hard filters that killed prior pairs: (1) L53 fee floor — entries fire only on LARGE residual deviations whose expected reversion (~3-5% of notional) is well above 3× the ~0.40% two-leg round-trip cost, stated up front, not the sub-fee fades that died; (2) the liquidation/notional bug that blew up the SOL-BTC pair (3.6× equity notional → -100%) is prevented by a HARD equal-RISK, ≤1× gross notional cap enforced in sizing, so neither leg can run oversized and neither perp leg can be margin-called. It is NOT the ETH/BTC ratio (momentum, decayed) nor SOL/BTC (idiosyncratic MR, blew up on sizing) — it is a distinct ETH-vs-SOL cointegration residual. Market-neutral (net beta ≈ 0), which gives it genuine alpha potential decorrelated from the BTC momentum survivor and fills the under-weight long-short/neutral direction bucket, AND — critically for the recent anti-momentum regime — a relative-value reversion edge does not depend on a directional trend existing. Three parameters: residual lookback/hedge-ratio window, entry z-threshold, stop z-threshold.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.