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Hypotheses

US Risk-On/Risk-Off Regime Rotation — SPY vs Defensive Sleeve (TLT/Cash), Single Long-SMA Trend Filter with Hysteresis Band, Decades of Daily History (2-Parameter)

A LONG-ONLY (always-long-ONE-asset or flat) cross-asset REGIME-ROTATION strategy on the USEQ venue, rotating a single 100%-notional sleeve between the equity index ETF SPY (risk-on) and a defensive government-bond ETF…

Hypothesis

A LONG-ONLY (always-long-ONE-asset or flat) cross-asset REGIME-ROTATION strategy on the USEQ venue, rotating a single 100%-notional sleeve between the equity index ETF SPY (risk-on) and a defensive government-bond ETF TLT (risk-off), stepping to CASH when neither is trending. This is a deliberate FIVE-AXIS pivot away from everything currently saturating the portfolio: (1) VENUE — USEQ is 0.5% of 2922 experiments vs a BINANCE that is 70.8% (target <=40%); this is the single most under-represented venue with real……Show moreShow less

A LONG-ONLY (always-long-ONE-asset or flat) cross-asset REGIME-ROTATION strategy on the USEQ venue, rotating a single 100%-notional sleeve between the equity index ETF SPY (risk-on) and a defensive government-bond ETF TLT (risk-off), stepping to CASH when neither is trending. This is a deliberate FIVE-AXIS pivot away from everything currently saturating the portfolio: (1) VENUE — USEQ is 0.5% of 2922 experiments vs a BINANCE that is 70.8% (target <=40%); this is the single most under-represented venue with real data behind it. (2) MECHANISM — not momentum-confluence, not funding/OI/liquidation gating, not VWAP reversion, not cross-sectional rank rotation, not options VRP — all documented dead classes. It is the risk-on/risk-off defensive-rotation archetype explicitly endorsed as 'the most robustly backtestable strategies in the whole factory' because of decades of daily history. (3) DATA — pure daily OHLCV, ZERO supplementary feeds (the highest-survival tag family at 3%), so no data_unavailable/data_wall risk. (4) HORIZON — long_term with regime holds measured in MONTHS, so turnover is ~2-4 switches/year/sleeve and fee/impact drag is negligible on a commission-free venue. (5) OVERFIT DEFENSE — only TWO parameters and a multi-decade daily backtest window, the direct antidote to the #2 killer (371 overfit deaths, all short-history/high-param curve fits). The core insight the meta-learner has NOT killed: equities carry a persistent equity-risk-premium in trending regimes and a flight-to-quality bid into bonds during sustained equity downtrends, and a slow trend filter harvests the ERP while side-stepping the deep bear leg. The known 2022 failure mode (stocks AND bonds fell together) is defended structurally: the defensive sleeve is only held when TLT is ITSELF in an uptrend, otherwise the strategy sits in cash rather than blindly buying bonds.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.