Price-vs-Basis Disagreement Resolution as an UN-TUNED 8-Name Event Panel: When a Major's 24h Mean Perp Premium Is >= 2 Sigma One Way While Its 24h Price Move Is >= 0.5 Sigma the Other Way, Take the Premium's Side for a Fixed 18h Clock (Binance USD-M 1H, independent single-name event legs, flat ~85% of name-hours, premium_index)

Restatement of the ETH price-vs-basis disagreement rule as a PANEL of independent single-name event trades, as the analyst recommended. The per-trade edge on ETH was real (0.5-1.25% per trade, PF 1.5-2.4, near-zero beta, positive holdout), but one coin fires only about 30 times a year and could not clear deflation. MECHANISM, stripped of instrument and timeframe (L138): 'when a perp's sustained premium to its spot index and its price move over the same window point in opposite directions at an extreme, trade in the premium's direction for about half a day'. UNIVERSE: 8 Binance USD-M USDT perps with premium_index history in data/supplementary/premiumIndexKlines: BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA, LINK, DOGE, BNB. These are the pre-study breadth set plus the three largest remaining majors. The list is capped at 8 because L173 says baskets of 20-60 names time out. Point-in-time eligibility: a name can trade only after it has >= 60 days of 1H bars and premium data, which excludes SOL before about 2020-11, and only while its trailing 30-day dollar volume is >= $200M/day. The list itself is a 2026 choice. Declare it as a degree of freedom: count 8 names x 5 threshold cells x 3 clocks, about 120 trials, for deflation (L151). This is NOT a neutral book or a cross-sectional ranking (L137/L173). Each name is evaluated on its own series with the same frozen rule, and each position is an independent single-leg event trade. There is no ranking, no beta estimation and no hedging leg. Compute cost per bar is 8 rolling z-scores. SIGNAL (per name, 1H bar close, trailing data only via supp_as_of/supp_window): prem24 = mean of the last 24 hourly premium_index closes. z_prem = (prem24 - mean over 720h) / std over 720h. ret24 = 24h log return, and z_ret = ret24 / (std of 24h returns over 720h). FROZEN thresholds, not optimized: LONG if z_prem >= +2.0 and z_ret <= -0.5 (perp longs kept paying up while spot-led selling pushed price down). SHORT if z_prem <= -2.0 and z_ret >= +0.5 (perp shorts kept paying to hold into a spot-led rally). ECONOMIC CAUSE (unchanged): the side that pays is the finite, size-constrained spot flow (distribution into perp-long absorption, or a spot bid into perp-short resistance). Once it is absorbed, price resolves toward where the leveraged derivative crowd priced it. CLOCK: fixed 18h exit, the midpoint of the 12-24h plateau from the ETH pre-study (12h t 2.8, 24h t 2.5). The ETH optimizer's 12h sat on a cliff, so the developer/analyst MUST report the panel's calendar Sharpe for every clock in {8,12,15,18,21,24,30}h without refitting. If the Sharpe is not roughly flat across 12-24h, the edge is a fit. ANTI-OVERLAP: per name, no re-entry while a position is open and a 6h cooldown after exit. A new trigger during an open trade does not extend the clock. SIZING: equal risk per event. Notional per event = min(20% of equity, 1.0% of equity / (2.5 x ATR%(24h))), so each event risks about 1% of equity to the catastrophe stop. Leverage 2x account. At most 4 concurrent positions and at most 3 on the same side, which limits correlated majors all firing long in one crash (gross cap <= 80% of equity x 2x). Catastrophe stop at 2.5 x the name's 24h ATR from entry, checked on 1H closes. Otherwise the only exit is the clock. There is no take-profit, which keeps the parameter count at 2 thresholds + 1 clock + 1 stop multiple. FLAT STATE (L150): each name is in the market about 3-6% of hours. The panel has at least one position open about 15-25% of hours and is flat about 75-85% of the time. EXPECTED COUNTS: roughly 25-35 de-overlapped events per name-year at 2.0 sigma, so about 1,100-1,500 trades over 2020-2026 across 8 names. FEE ARITHMETIC: the pre-study breadth table at the same rule gave +0.47% to +0.92% gross per event (24h clock) across 5 names. Apply a haircut for the weaker added names (BTC's premium is less informative, so expect about +0.3%) and assume a panel mean of about +0.50% gross. Net of the 0.10% RT and about 0.05% slippage, that is about +0.35%, which is 3.5x the round trip. Expect the calendar Sharpe to scale from the single-name 0.4-0.75 by roughly sqrt(effective independent names). The majors are about 0.6-0.8 correlated, so N_eff is about 3, which gives a panel Sharpe of about 1.0-1.3. REQUIRED REPORTING: a per-name breakdown (trades, avg trade, PF), per-year returns and an ex-2021 result, long and short sides separately, and the clock plateau table.