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BTC 4H Volume-Confirmed Breakout Long with Daily Regime Filter

A long-only single-instrument breakout strategy on BTCUSDT perpetual futures using 4-hour bars and OHLCV-only data, with a daily-bar regime filter. Architecturally MIRRORS the proven BNB 4H Volume-Confirmed Breakout…

Hypothesis

A long-only single-instrument breakout strategy on BTCUSDT perpetual futures using 4-hour bars and OHLCV-only data, with a daily-bar regime filter. Architecturally MIRRORS the proven BNB 4H Volume-Confirmed Breakout (Sharpe 2.03, paper_stage), applied to BTC as the third sensitivity-validation test point of this construction class (BNB ✓ proven, SOL ⏳ in pipeline, LINK ⏳ in pipeline, BTC proposed here). BTC is the SAFEST asset for this architecture-transfer because: (a) BTC has empirically validated trend……Show moreShow less

A long-only single-instrument breakout strategy on BTCUSDT perpetual futures using 4-hour bars and OHLCV-only data, with a daily-bar regime filter. Architecturally MIRRORS the proven BNB 4H Volume-Confirmed Breakout (Sharpe 2.03, paper_stage), applied to BTC as the third sensitivity-validation test point of this construction class (BNB ✓ proven, SOL ⏳ in pipeline, LINK ⏳ in pipeline, BTC proposed here). BTC is the SAFEST asset for this architecture-transfer because: (a) BTC has empirically validated trend persistence at multiple timeframes (BTC Daily Multi-Week Trend Continuation = pending, BTC Spot Drawdown Accumulation = Sharpe 3.33 paper_stage), (b) BTC has the deepest liquidity and cleanest 4H microstructure of any crypto perp — institutional flows produce the smoothest momentum continuation signals, (c) BTC's correlation to BNB is ~0.75-0.85 — high enough that the architecture should transfer, with the additional advantage that BTC has CLEANER trend dynamics than BNB (BNB Golden Cross failed because BNB has stronger mean-reversion at daily; BTC has the OPPOSITE empirical character at daily, so 4H momentum should be even cleaner than BNB's). Importantly addresses the recently-documented 'auto-replication failure pattern' by: (i) requiring sensitivity_passed=true with cliff_count=0 as a HARD GATE before optimization, (ii) selecting BTC based on existing empirical evidence of clean trend behavior across multiple timeframes (NOT a thesis-only argument like BNB Golden Cross). Existing BTC strategies in pipeline (BtcDailyMultiWeekTrendContinuationLong + BtcSpotDrawdownAccumulationLong) use daily bars + sustained momentum / drawdown DCA — this proposal uses 4H bars + intraday volume-confirmed breakouts: orthogonal in BOTH timeframe AND mechanism, providing genuine portfolio diversification with minimal signal correlation to existing BTC exposure. Single-dominant-filter design (200-day SMA daily regime + 20-bar 4H Donchian high + volume confirmation), explicitly NOT a multi-condition AND-gate. Calibrated for ~25-45 entries/year — well above the sparsity-failure threshold.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.