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Hypotheses

Deribit BTC Weekly Long Straddle on Realized-Volatility Compression (Vega-Long Vol-Expansion Bet)

A delta-neutral, multi-instrument options strategy on Deribit BTC weekly ATM options that buys the next-expiring weekly ATM straddle (1 ATM call + 1 ATM put, same strike, same expiry) when realized volatility has been…

Hypothesis

A delta-neutral, multi-instrument options strategy on Deribit BTC weekly ATM options that buys the next-expiring weekly ATM straddle (1 ATM call + 1 ATM put, same strike, same expiry) when realized volatility has been compressed and reverts upward. Addresses the SINGLE LARGEST quota gap in the 658-strategy portfolio: OPTIONS venue at 0.2% vs ≥15% target (14.8% gap, essentially zero coverage). Deribit is the most liquid crypto options venue with 1610+ active BTC/ETH contracts and full IV/greeks data in catalog —……Show moreShow less

A delta-neutral, multi-instrument options strategy on Deribit BTC weekly ATM options that buys the next-expiring weekly ATM straddle (1 ATM call + 1 ATM put, same strike, same expiry) when realized volatility has been compressed and reverts upward. Addresses the SINGLE LARGEST quota gap in the 658-strategy portfolio: OPTIONS venue at 0.2% vs ≥15% target (14.8% gap, essentially zero coverage). Deribit is the most liquid crypto options venue with 1610+ active BTC/ETH contracts and full IV/greeks data in catalog — this is the lowest-hanging fruit for diversifying the portfolio off Binance USD-M perp dominance (87.8%). The mechanism is volatility mean-reversion: BTC realized volatility exhibits documented clustering AND mean-reversion (GARCH dynamics), and weekly periods following compression (low rolling 14-day realized vol) are statistically more likely to see vol expansion than periods following high realized vol. The strategy is delta-neutral at entry (call delta ≈ +0.5, put delta ≈ -0.5, net ≈ 0), so it's not a directional bet — it's a pure vega/gamma play. Profits if BTC moves >breakeven in EITHER direction by expiry. Conceptually orthogonal to every other strategy in the portfolio: not breakout, not reversion, not pairs, not microstructure, not carry — purely volatility-of-volatility. AVOIDS the failure patterns documented this session: (1) NOT a 4H bar-pattern strategy (no 4H regime dependency); (2) NOT dependent on lottery-win single trades (~30-40 trades/year, fairly uniform PnL distribution); (3) NOT a transplanted equity pattern (vol-clustering is universal in financial markets); (4) NOT a breakout (works equally in trending and ranging regimes — only needs volatility expansion).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.