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All hypotheses

Hypotheses

DOT Dual-Timeframe Momentum Confluence, Long-Short (DOTUSDT.BINANCE USD-M, 4H Primary + 1D Trend Confirm, Flat on Disagreement, ATR-Trailing Exit, 3-Parameter)

A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument, pure-OHLCV momentum-confluence trend follower on DOTUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perpetual): 4H primary momentum, 1D trend confirm. This is a DELIBERATE STRUCTURAL TWIN of the factory's ONLY…

Hypothesis

A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument, pure-OHLCV momentum-confluence trend follower on DOTUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perpetual): 4H primary momentum, 1D trend confirm. This is a DELIBERATE STRUCTURAL TWIN of the factory's ONLY empirically-surviving mechanism family — the BTC and ADA Dual-Timeframe Momentum Confluence strategies now in paper_stage (Sharpe 1.99 and 1.60) and the ETH Volume-Confirmed variant (Sharpe 1.05). Those survivors share one recipe: take a directional position ONLY when a fast (4H) trend and a slow (1D)……Show moreShow less

A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument, pure-OHLCV momentum-confluence trend follower on DOTUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perpetual): 4H primary momentum, 1D trend confirm. This is a DELIBERATE STRUCTURAL TWIN of the factory's ONLY empirically-surviving mechanism family — the BTC and ADA Dual-Timeframe Momentum Confluence strategies now in paper_stage (Sharpe 1.99 and 1.60) and the ETH Volume-Confirmed variant (Sharpe 1.05). Those survivors share one recipe: take a directional position ONLY when a fast (4H) trend and a slow (1D) trend AGREE, stand flat on disagreement, trail winners with an ATR stop, and expose only ~3 parameters. The recent DEATHS of this family (BNB 8H+1D, AVAX 4H+volume+close-location filter, SOL-HL) all died overfit/PBO because they ADDED filters/timeframes/parameters that curve-fit the search — NOT because the core mechanism is fee-dead (every one cleared the per-trade fee floor comfortably: 1.36%, 0.53%, etc.). The lesson from the survivor-vs-death split is UNAMBIGUOUS: keep the recipe minimal and move it to an UNDER-MINED liquid instrument, do not add cleverness. This hypothesis does exactly that: identical minimal structure, applied to DOT — a liquid ~6-year-history USD-M perp that is essentially absent from the corpus (62% of recent research is BTC; DOT does not appear in any recent failure list), and expressed LONG-SHORT to fill the under-represented direction bucket (long_short is only 14.2% of the portfolio vs an 85.8% long-only glut).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.