Skip to content
All hypotheses

Hypotheses

Cross-Sectional Momentum Rotation with a HARD EQUITY-CURVE Drawdown Circuit-Breaker, Long-Only (BINANCE USD-M, 8 Majors, Weekly Top-3 by Relative Strength — go FULLY FLAT to cash whenever the STRATEGY'S OWN equity draws down >25% from peak, re-enter only after recovery: a MECHANICAL DD cap that filters/hedges could not deliver, 3-Parameter)

A REAL, codeable strategy that targets the EXACT binding constraint now killing every reuse of the only LIVE edge (cross-sectional momentum, deployed Sharpe 2.6): the >50% max-drawdown hard-abandon floor (L19). The…

Hypothesis

A REAL, codeable strategy that targets the EXACT binding constraint now killing every reuse of the only LIVE edge (cross-sectional momentum, deployed Sharpe 2.6): the >50% max-drawdown hard-abandon floor (L19). The evidence is now unambiguous — my Crowding-Filter (63% DD) and Dispersion-Gate (67% DD) momentum variants both died BECAUSE a SIGNAL FILTER cannot protect the tail (the book still ate −55% to −58% in 2022), and the fully-hedged version removed the edge. The one DD control none of them used is a HARD……Show moreShow less

A REAL, codeable strategy that targets the EXACT binding constraint now killing every reuse of the only LIVE edge (cross-sectional momentum, deployed Sharpe 2.6): the >50% max-drawdown hard-abandon floor (L19). The evidence is now unambiguous — my Crowding-Filter (63% DD) and Dispersion-Gate (67% DD) momentum variants both died BECAUSE a SIGNAL FILTER cannot protect the tail (the book still ate −55% to −58% in 2022), and the fully-hedged version removed the edge. The one DD control none of them used is a HARD EQUITY-CURVE CIRCUIT BREAKER: a mechanical stop on the STRATEGY'S OWN equity that liquidates the entire book to cash when its drawdown from peak exceeds a fixed threshold, re-entering only after recovery. Unlike a signal filter (which only changes WHAT you hold, not your total exposure in a crash), an equity-curve stop caps max_drawdown at ~the threshold BY CONSTRUCTION, regardless of signal — directly clearing the 50% floor. Mechanism: run the deployed weekly top-3 relative-strength rotation on the 8 majors; track the strategy's equity peak; if equity falls ≥ dd_stop (default 25%) below peak, go 100% CASH and stop trading; resume the rotation only after a recovery condition (the equal-weight majors basket reclaims its level from when the stop fired, or a fixed cooldown elapses). This is distinct from all my pending momentum variants (crowding/dispersion filters, partial-hedge, mid-cap, spot) — the differentiator is a portfolio-equity circuit breaker, the only DD mechanism that mechanically guarantees the cap. Reuses the proven signal (no L30 new-indicator risk). Long-only, weekly, USD-M. 3 core parameters (momentum lookback, drawdown-stop threshold, re-entry recovery).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.