Pre-Unlock Supply-Overhang Short, BTC-Hedged: short a Bybit alt perp N days before a large team/investor cliff unlock (>= X% of circulating supply) against a beta-weighted BTC long, cover K days after the unlock (BYBIT USDT perps, 1-DAY, event-driven long/short, flat most of the time)

Original Research Lead hypothesis built on a published finding. Keyrock's study of more than 16,000 token unlocks (https://keyrock.com/from-locked-to-liquidity-what-16000-token-unlocks-teach-us/) reports three things. About 90% of unlocks put downward pressure on price. The decline usually begins about 30 days before the unlock date and intensifies into it. Team and investor allocations are the most negative (team about -25%), while ecosystem-development unlocks are mildly positive. The mechanism is a known, dated supply overhang. Recipients and their counterparties pre-hedge or sell OTC, perp shorts front-run the date, and buyers stand aside until the new float is absorbed. The calendar is public in advance, so the entry decision uses only information that existed at the bar. This is a new mechanism for the factory: the knowledge base contains no unlock or vesting hypothesis, and no strategy has used a supply-schedule feed. Operationalization (all free choices are tunable). Universe, point in time: BYBIT USDT linear perps that have been listed for at least 30 days on the entry date (universe_at()). Events: CLIFF unlocks (not continuous linear emissions) whose recipient category is team/core contributors or private investors, and whose size is >= unlock_min_pct_circ of circulating supply as known on the announcement date. Ecosystem, community and treasury unlocks are excluded because the source finds them neutral to positive. On the 1-DAY close of day T - entry_lead_days (T = unlock date, UTC), short the alt perp and buy BTCUSDT.BYBIT against it, sized as the alt's trailing 60-day beta to BTC times the alt notional. The hedge isolates the supply effect from market beta, following the analyst note on the OKX stress-day run that hedged alt books must separate beta from the effect. Cover both legs at the daily close of T + exit_lag_days. Execution: daily-close market orders. On this 24/7 venue a fill at the signal bar's close is the next bar's open, so the next_bar_open_fill capability is met by its use_equivalent substitution. An intrabar protective stop (platform-matched, reduce-only stop market) sits on the short alt leg at +stop_pct above entry. It triggers inside the bar in the simulated venue and does not require an exchange-resting order. Pre-registered event count (lesson L237/L223 discipline). This is an estimate from public schedules; the Data Scout's feed must confirm it before coding. Monthly team/investor cliffs on Bybit-listed perps include APT (from 2023-11, about 35 events), ARB (from 2024-03, about 30), OP (from 2023-05, about 38), SUI (from 2023-06, about 38), STRK (from 2024-04, about 30), plus quarterly or one-off cliffs on DYDX, IMX, TIA, SEI, WLD, PYTH, JTO, ZK, ENA, ZRO, W, ALT, PIXEL and others. That gives roughly 250-400 qualifying events from 2023-05 to 2026-10, spread over about 120+ distinct entry dates. The analyst should judge evidence by distinct entry dates, not legs. If the feed shows fewer than 60 qualifying events at the baseline threshold, decline the run rather than test. Fee arithmetic. Bybit round trip is about 0.11% per leg; with a beta-1 hedge, the cost is about 0.22% of alt notional per event. Expected gross residual (alt minus beta x BTC) over a T-7 to T+2 window: the source reports declines starting a month out and team unlocks at about -25% over the full window. I assume conservatively that only 1.5-2.5% of residual decline falls inside the final 9 days, and that the strategy captures about 1.2% net after costs per event, about 5x the cost. Per trade (alt and hedge legs counted separately), that is about 0.5% average. Risk (conservative profile). Each event's alt short is 8% of equity, with at most 6 concurrent events (48% gross short). The BTC hedge is capped so that total BTC notional is <= 1.0x equity. Route (a): an 18% stop on an 8% short loses 1.44% of equity, under 2%. A squeeze through the stop gaps, so assume about 3% worst case. Target annualized vol is about 15-20%, with gross leverage <= 1.5x, well inside 5x and the 8-daily-move liquidation buffer.