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Hypotheses

KO/PEP Cointegration Pairs Reversion — Dollar-Neutral Long-Short Stat-Arb on Commission-Free US Equities: Trade the Mean-Reverting Spread Between Two Cointegrated Consumer-Staples Large Caps, Z-Score Entry, Convergence Exit, Divergence Stop (KO.USEQ + PEP.USEQ, Daily Bars, 3-Parameter)

A DOLLAR-NEUTRAL, LONG-SHORT PAIRS stat-arb on two structurally cointegrated US large caps — Coca-Cola (KO.USEQ) long/short vs PepsiCo (PEP.USEQ) — on the USEQ venue. This is a materially different family from…

Hypothesis

A DOLLAR-NEUTRAL, LONG-SHORT PAIRS stat-arb on two structurally cointegrated US large caps — Coca-Cola (KO.USEQ) long/short vs PepsiCo (PEP.USEQ) — on the USEQ venue. This is a materially different family from everything in the crypto book and from the single-name equity mean-reversion already in the pipeline: the tradeable object is the SPREAD between two fundamentally-linked companies, not either price. KO and PEP are the textbook cointegrated pair — same consumer-staples demand drivers, same macro sensitivity,……Show moreShow less

A DOLLAR-NEUTRAL, LONG-SHORT PAIRS stat-arb on two structurally cointegrated US large caps — Coca-Cola (KO.USEQ) long/short vs PepsiCo (PEP.USEQ) — on the USEQ venue. This is a materially different family from everything in the crypto book and from the single-name equity mean-reversion already in the pipeline: the tradeable object is the SPREAD between two fundamentally-linked companies, not either price. KO and PEP are the textbook cointegrated pair — same consumer-staples demand drivers, same macro sensitivity, decades of co-movement — so their relative valuation oscillates around a stable long-run relationship and reverts when it stretches. Why this belongs on USEQ and not crypto: pairs/market-neutral is 0/125 in the crypto book (L68) primarily because two-leg round-trip FEES (0.20-0.40%) exceed the thin spread-reversion capture, AND cross-venue legs can't be injected into the sandbox (L69). BOTH problems vanish here — USEQ is commission-free (~0.02-0.05% RT per leg, spread+impact only) so the same spread edge that is fee-dead on crypto clears costs with room to spare, and BOTH legs are the SAME venue (USEQ), so the second instrument injects into the Layer-3 sandbox exactly like the 372 same-venue crypto pairs that already run. Decades of daily history (KO and PEP both trade since the 1980s) give a genuinely robust multi-window walk-forward and a real 15-day holdout, avoiding the empty-OOS problem that sank short-history strategies. Only 3 free parameters (z_entry, lookback, hard_stop_z) with a fixed z-exit at 0 to resist overfitting. FEE ARITHMETIC: the KO/PEP spread z-score swings ~2-4% peak-to-mean between |z|=2 extremes and convergence; capturing ~0.8-1.2% of spread convergence per completed trade against a ~0.16% two-leg round-trip cost (4 fills × ~0.04%) is ~5-7x the cost floor and well above the 0.15% viability bar. The market-neutral construction cancels broad market beta, so the return is the mean-reversion of the RELATIVE valuation, not a directional bet.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.