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Hypotheses

SOL Extreme Funding Rate Contrarian Short on 1H

A simple single-instrument short-only strategy on SOLUSDT perpetual futures that fades over-leveraged long positioning when 8-hour funding rates spike to extreme levels. The strategy uses 1-hour bars and one…

Hypothesis

A simple single-instrument short-only strategy on SOLUSDT perpetual futures that fades over-leveraged long positioning when 8-hour funding rates spike to extreme levels. The strategy uses 1-hour bars and one supplementary input (funding rate). When funding > +0.05% per 8h (annualized ~55%), longs are crowded and paying shorts heavily; historically these regimes coincide with local tops as cascading liquidations punish leveraged longs. The short position captures (a) the funding payment received per 8h funding period, AND (b) mean reversion in price when crowded longs unwind. Holds are intraday (typically 6-24h), so accumulated fee drag is minimal relative to the 1.5%+ per-trade target. Risk profile: 1.5% capital risk per trade with strong-signal scaling (2% risk when funding > +0.08%), fixed 1.5% adverse-move stop, max 20% equity in any single position. The hypothesis is intentionally minimalist (one instrument, one indicator, one timeframe) to avoid the verification timeouts that plagued recent multi-instrument and multi-indicator hypotheses.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.