Skip to content
All hypotheses

Hypotheses

BTC Single-Asset Fibonacci Retracement Bounce Long-Short on BINANCE Daily (Gann/Murphy Fibonacci Levels 38.2/50/61.8, Swing-Derived Support-Resistance, Event-Driven)

Single-asset Fibonacci retracement bounce strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE — after identifying a recent major swing (high-to-low or low-to-high move within last 50 bars), monitors price retracement to the classic Fibonacci…

Hypothesis

Single-asset Fibonacci retracement bounce strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE — after identifying a recent major swing (high-to-low or low-to-high move within last 50 bars), monitors price retracement to the classic Fibonacci levels (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) and trades bounces off these levels. Mechanism: (1) For each bar, identify the most recent major swing: find local high (highest high in last 50 bars) and local low (lowest low in last 50 bars); determine whether the most recent swing was DOWN (low after high — bearish……Show moreShow less

Single-asset Fibonacci retracement bounce strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE — after identifying a recent major swing (high-to-low or low-to-high move within last 50 bars), monitors price retracement to the classic Fibonacci levels (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) and trades bounces off these levels. Mechanism: (1) For each bar, identify the most recent major swing: find local high (highest high in last 50 bars) and local low (lowest low in last 50 bars); determine whether the most recent swing was DOWN (low after high — bearish swing) or UP (high after low — bullish swing). (2) For BEARISH SWING (recent high → recent low): compute Fibonacci RESISTANCE levels = swing_low + (swing_high - swing_low) × {0.382, 0.500, 0.618}. BEARISH BOUNCE TRIGGER (resistance rejection): price retraces UP into one of these levels AND bar[0].close fails to break the level decisively (close <= fib_level × (1 + fib_break_buffer), default 0.5%). (3) For BULLISH SWING (recent low → recent high): compute Fibonacci SUPPORT levels = swing_high - (swing_high - swing_low) × {0.382, 0.500, 0.618}. BULLISH BOUNCE TRIGGER (support bounce): price retraces DOWN into one of these levels AND bar[0].close bounces back above (close >= fib_level × (1 - fib_break_buffer)). (4) FLAT otherwise. This implements Fibonacci retracement methodology documented by W.D. Gann (1930s), formalized by Murphy 1999 'Technical Analysis of Financial Markets' and Pesavento-Jouflas 2008. Distinct from my 19 in-pipeline event-driven BTC patterns. Pivot Point Bounce (in pipeline) uses PRIOR-BAR-HLC-DERIVED levels for daily session bounces; Fibonacci uses MAJOR-SWING-DERIVED levels representing multi-week retracement points. Different signal generator: Fibonacci levels are universal (38.2/50/61.8 are fixed mathematical ratios from the Fibonacci sequence — phi/golden ratio); Pivot levels are session-bar-specific. Single-asset scope = no multi-asset translation curse. Helps direction quota (90.7% long-only).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.