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Hypotheses

AVAX USD-M Daily Dual-EMA Trend, Long-Short with Long-Term Regime Filter (Single-Instrument BINANCE Perp, Validated Daily-Trend Family Applied to a Decorrelated High-Beta L1 Major with Deep Multi-Year History, ATR-Stopped, Low-Parameter)

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, DAILY dual-EMA-crossover trend strategy on AVAXUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perpetual). It extends the factory's ONE empirically-validated, promoted edge — DAILY time-series trend-following on…

Hypothesis

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, DAILY dual-EMA-crossover trend strategy on AVAXUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perpetual). It extends the factory's ONE empirically-validated, promoted edge — DAILY time-series trend-following on high-beta majors that trend cleanly (the BTC/ETH/SOL TS-momentum siblings at paper_stage) — to a high-beta L1 major the long-short trend book does NOT yet cover and that adds a decorrelated return stream (AVAX is the closest behavioral analog to the validated SOL: a high-beta L1 that produced……Show moreShow less

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, DAILY dual-EMA-crossover trend strategy on AVAXUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perpetual). It extends the factory's ONE empirically-validated, promoted edge — DAILY time-series trend-following on high-beta majors that trend cleanly (the BTC/ETH/SOL TS-momentum siblings at paper_stage) — to a high-beta L1 major the long-short trend book does NOT yet cover and that adds a decorrelated return stream (AVAX is the closest behavioral analog to the validated SOL: a high-beta L1 that produced powerful sustained advances in 2021 and 2023-2024, with deep multi-year Binance history). It is built around every confirmed engine and edge landmine of this session: SINGLE-INSTRUMENT / SINGLE-VENUE / SINGLE-ACCOUNT (cannot trigger the multi-instrument equity/return aggregation artifact that corrupted the pairs / rotation / spot-sleeve / cash-carry runs); DEEP MULTI-YEAR HISTORY on Binance (directly avoiding the Hyperliquid ~155-day data wall that overfit-collapsed the HL funding-reversion run — walk-forward and holdout here span multiple real bull/bear regimes); DAILY bars (the validated cadence — NOT the intraday-bar breakout/vol-expansion/impulse variants that are chop/whipsaw-dominated and negative on majors); no options, no funding-carry, no cross-venue. It is engineered to PASS where LTC trend FAILED: the LTC lesson was that the trend edge is asset-selective and a naked trend-cross gets chopped on a range-bound laggard — AVAX is a high-beta trender (unlike laggard LTC), and a LONG-TERM REGIME FILTER (take longs only above a rising 200-day MA, shorts only below a falling one) keeps the book out of the directionless chop that produces the 16.8%-win-rate whipsaw. Low parameter count (~4 knobs) to resist overfitting; thresholds set so the strategy is in-market a healthy fraction of the time (ample trades, no Layer-3 no-trade failure).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.