Hypotheses
ADA 4H Bullish RSI Divergence Long-Only with Trend Filter on ADAUSDT.BINANCE
A long-only, single-instrument momentum-divergence strategy on ADAUSDT.BINANCE — confirmed testable per the recent successful ADA-4H single-instrument pipeline additions (ADADonchianBreakoutLong4HOnly,…
Hypothesis
A long-only, single-instrument momentum-divergence strategy on ADAUSDT.BINANCE — confirmed testable per the recent successful ADA-4H single-instrument pipeline additions (ADADonchianBreakoutLong4HOnly, ADAWeekendCalendarEffectLong, ADAVolContractionSqueezeLong all backtested cleanly on ADA-4H bars alone). Structurally distinct from every prior ADA pipeline strategy: those are breakout (Donchian), calendar effect, vol regime, mean reversion (Keltner failed; BB-MR works), and pairs. This is the FIRST……Show moreShow less
A long-only, single-instrument momentum-divergence strategy on ADAUSDT.BINANCE — confirmed testable per the recent successful ADA-4H single-instrument pipeline additions (ADADonchianBreakoutLong4HOnly, ADAWeekendCalendarEffectLong, ADAVolContractionSqueezeLong all backtested cleanly on ADA-4H bars alone). Structurally distinct from every prior ADA pipeline strategy: those are breakout (Donchian), calendar effect, vol regime, mean reversion (Keltner failed; BB-MR works), and pairs. This is the FIRST MOMENTUM-DIVERGENCE strategy in the portfolio. The mechanism (Wilder 1978 'New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems'; Pring 1991 'Technical Analysis Explained'; Murphy 1999 confirms in academic-adjacent practitioner literature; Caginalp-Balenovich 2003 formal model): when price makes a new LOWER LOW while RSI(14) makes a HIGHER LOW, momentum is positively diverging from price — sellers are exhausting even as the price drifts lower. This bullish divergence reliably precedes mean-reverting rallies in 55-65% of confirmed setups (per technical analysis literature, replicated in crypto-specific Caporale-Plastun 2018). The 4H trend filter (close > 50-period SMA) restricts entries to assets that have started transitioning OUT of bear regimes — accumulation phases, NOT mid-bear catches. This is critically different from the FAILED Keltner symmetric range trade: that strategy fought the trend; this strategy LOOKS FOR DIVERGENCE AT THE TRANSITION between regimes. Uses ONLY ADAUSDT.BINANCE 4H bars — single instrument, single timeframe, no cross-asset audit_stale risk. Fills critical gaps: (1) FIRST MOMENTUM-DIVERGENCE strategy in portfolio, (2) Single-instrument simplicity (no multi-instrument auto-collection failures), (3) Long-only direction matching the proven multi-timeframe-breakout success structure, (4) Confirmed-testable instrument. Position sizing: 18% per trade. Risk per trade: ~1.5% capped by stop-loss.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.