Strategies

Hyperliquid Supply-Schedule Revision Repricing, ETH-Hedged

Outcome: Abandoned

Hypothesis

Original research hypothesis: trade unexpected revisions to already public token release schedules, rather than predictable unlock dates. On synchronized 4-HOUR bars, buy reductions and short increases in the next 90 days of scheduled circulating supply, hedged with ETH. Use only revisions publicly announced while the relevant perp was listed. Market orders execute at the signal-bar close, the registry equivalent of next-bar-open execution on continuous markets; protective stops are platform-matched intrabar. Historical publication vintages are required before implementation can test this contract. Tokenomist documents release schedules and event data, but does not establish that historical publication vintages are available: [Tokenomist API introduction](https://docs.unlocks.app/api-documents/introduction). No event counts or forward-return studies have been measured for this proposal.

Hyperliquid is underweight at 13.9% versus 20%, and long-short research is underweight relative to the long-only book. Options have the largest venue deficit, but this proposal avoids the recorded unresolved option-leg feasibility path. Unlike existing pre-unlock shorts and post-unlock bounces, the trigger is newly published information changing the previously expected supply path; it does not trade a scheduled release itself. Corpus concentration was supplied empty, so exact recent instrument shares cannot be verified. ETH is included for its hedge role rather than as another standalone directional test.

data_unavailable: no usable source for N1 (no candidate covers the need in full / only partial coverage from: Internet Archive Wayback Machine snapshots of tokenomist.ai project pages (CDX API), CoinGecko public API market_chart/range (keyless), CoinGecko circulating_supply_chart / range (Enterprise), Tokenomist (formerly TokenUnlocks) API)

Analysis

N1 asks for point-in-time token-unlock data for 2025-11-01..2026-11-01: dated records of each schedule revision, the schedule as published before each revision, and circulating supply as observed before each announcement. The hypothesis title, description and instruments were not in the brief, so I could not check exact ids. No platform collector or held credential covers this. I found no free source that publishes official dated revision records. Best free option, partial and public: Internet Archive Wayback snapshots of tokenomist.ai project pages (CDX API, no key). Each snapshot carries its capture timestamp. A 2025-07-18 Arbitrum snapshot held the circulating supply (5,150,239,630 ARB) and the schedule text. Captures are irregular (days to months apart), so this gives a coarse point-in-time record, not a list of revisions. Free partial supplement: CoinGecko's keyless public market_chart/range, which returned hourly price and market cap for ARB in Nov 2025. Circulating supply can only be inferred as market cap / price, and whether past values were later revised is not verified. Paid options, for the operator: CoinGecko circulating_supply_chart (listed as Enterprise-only in the docs) and the Tokenomist API (paid plans, prices conflict across snapshots: $49-$249.95/month). Neither documents historical publication vintages. The verdict is new_source because only partial or paid sources exist. If the hypothesis strictly needs official revision records, treat it as unavailable.

Internet Archive Wayback Machine snapshots of tokenomist.ai project pages (CDX API)

CoinGecko public API market_chart/range (keyless)

CoinGecko circulating_supply_chart / range (Enterprise)

Tokenomist (formerly TokenUnlocks) API

N1: no candidate covers the need in full / only partial coverage from: Internet Archive Wayback Machine snapshots of tokenomist.ai project pages (CDX API), CoinGecko public API market_chart/range (keyless), CoinGecko circulating_supply_chart / range (Enterprise), Tokenomist (formerly TokenUnlocks) API

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.