Hyperliquid Triple-Volatility-Stop and ATR-Brick Agreement: APT, ICP and CRV

Hypothesis

Derived by the Research Lead from ChaoZhang’s Lancelot intraday strategy, https://www.fmz.com/strategy/436765: test ordered volatility-stop agreement confirmed by a causal ATR-brick update, independently on APT, ICP and CRV Hyperliquid perpetuals using 4-HOUR bars. The complete locally archived Pine source was read. Its executable long rules, rather than the looser prose summary, define the signal. This distilled adaptation activates the source’s explicitly commented-out symmetric short rules, uses the same completed 4H clock for both components, and adds conservative sizing. These changes are Research Lead choices, not claims about the author’s tested strategy. All market orders execute at the decision bar close, the registry equivalent of next-bar-open execution on a continuous venue. Use ordinary OHLCV bars, never synthetic Renko execution prices. No preliminary performance study was performed.

Hyperliquid is 13.7% versus its 20% target, and long-short is only 24.7%; this panel improves both and reduces single-name concentration. Options have the largest venue deficit, but recent option-leg feasibility failures favor a simpler executable experiment here. Corpus concentration was supplied empty, so no recent share is invented. Snapshot primary-instrument counts are APT 2, ICP 2 and CRV 2; those are all-snapshot counts, not recent-window shares. FTS searches for the source URL, multiple stop and Renko found no matching prior hypothesis. The separate Hawkes article was not selected because a DOGE implementation already exists. This is a stop-state/brick-consensus source adaptation, distinct from the supplied volatility-feedback, dispersion-release and residual-risk failures. It remains an unproven trend mechanism, not evidence of an established edge.

Measured negative development-period expectancy across 46 completed positions warrants declining optimization. No demonstrated implementation defect or evidence-supported repair is apparent. This rejects the Research Lead's disclosed operationalization, including its activated short arm, rather than the source author's original strategy. No conclusion is drawn about withheld holdout results or untested parameter regions.

Implementation

Independent APT, ICP and CRV 4H triple Wilder-volatility-stop agreement with causal ATR bricks, symmetric shorts and close-based signal exits. Ordinary OHLC bars execute at decision close, the registered continuous-market equivalent of next-bar open.

Implements the disclosed source adaptation, exact brick branch priority, 1000-bar per-leg warmup, previous-180-return volatility sizing and entry-time exposure checks. Scalar per-leg recursive states persist across restarts. Position quantities remain fixed until signal exit. The panel is a fixed selected test set, not an unbiased historical universe. Slippage and funding are applied by the platform.

Backtest Review

Sharpe

-0.27

Total return

-1.80%

Max drawdown

6.79%

Trades

73

Win rate

37.0%

Profit factor

0.88

Code follows the disclosed stop and brick rules, symmetric directions and volatility-based sizing.

46 positions across 43 entry timestamps imply approximately 23 trades per name per year, consistent with the predicted frequency.

Average net trade return is -0.504%, profit factor 0.878, portfolio return -1.289% and Sharpe -0.259.

Ledger PnL reconciles to approximately -$1,288.80: price PnL -$961.79 plus funding -$327.01, with no open positions at the cutoff.

38 shorts lose $2,007.54; eight longs earn $718.74. CRV losses exceed the combined APT and ICP gains. These subgroup results do not establish a supported repair.

Outcome Summary

The adaptation’s negative expectancy and subgroup results did not establish a supported repair or justify conclusions about the source author’s original strategy.

The backtest reviewer chose abandon because development-period expectancy was negative and no implementation defect or evidence-supported repair was identified. Optimization, post-optimization analysis and risk review were not reached.

Trade APT, ICP and CRV Hyperliquid perpetuals on four-hour bars using triple volatility-stop agreement confirmed by causal ATR bricks, with symmetric long/short signals and volatility-based sizing.

The supplied backtest reports 73 closed positions, -1.804% return, Sharpe -0.271 and 6.790% maximum drawdown. The review cites a different 46-position result with -1.289% return and Sharpe -0.259; both show negative expectancy.