Strategies

TDSequentialStrategy by berlinguyinca — Frozen Freqtrade Source Port, Binance Spot 1H

Outcome: Abandoned

LinkFrozenTDSequential

Outcome Summary

After one iteration, LinkFrozenTDSequential tested a frozen, long-only TD Sequential adaptation on LINKUSDT hourly spot bars. Its 577 closed trades produced a -33.88% return, -0.0581 Sharpe ratio, and 73.32% maximum drawdown. Backtest review abandoned it for negative expectancy after costs, declining optimization because parameters were frozen and no verified repair supported iteration.

Strategy report

Hypothesis

Classification: concrete trading strategy. Faithful translation of TDSequentialStrategy from berlinguyinca's Freqtrade collection, with the source docstring crediting @bmoulkaf; GPL-3.0. Source: https://github.com/freqtrade/freqtrade-strategies/blob/f3340ce11f5bdf62f598522e64d1f5638eaa13f5/user_data/strategies/berlinguyinca/TDSequentialStrategy.py. Use the supplied Python as the authoritative source, including its ninth-count assignment behavior rather than correcting it to match the prose. Preserve 1h bars, 30 startup candles, long-only operation, limit entries and exits, GTC entry/exit orders, stoploss=-0.05, trailing_stop=False, use_exit_signal=True, exit_profit_only=False and ignore_roi_if_entry_signal=False. The source ROI schedule {'0': 5} means a 500% profit threshold from minute zero, not 5%. Correct the validation error by storing minimal_roi as the finite scalar 5.0 and roi_start_minutes as 0; reconstruct the original schedule in implementation. The source provides no pair, stake allocation or limit-price selection; platform additions are LINKUSDT.BINANCE_SPOT, 1x cash execution, fixed equity-relative sizing and signal-close limit prices. The source's stoploss_on_exchange=False is implemented through a platform-matched intrabar protective stop at 5% below entry, with no exchange-hosted protection requirement. This explicitly substitutes the platform's intrabar stop for the source's locally managed stoploss order mapping of 'limit'. No performance claim is verified. The outbox file workspace/outbox/research_lead/hypothesis_88d0a4cd75.json could not be written because this session permits read-only filesystem access.

Preserve the submitted source mechanism and defaults rather than introduce filters, shorts or parameter searches. Binance Spot fits its unleveraged long-only intent and is below its 15% venue target at 11.2%. LINK avoids another BTC experiment, although corpus_concentration is empty and instrument-specific novelty cannot be verified. Single-symbol and long-only exposure remain overrepresented; source fidelity takes precedence over changing the strategy to satisfy those quotas. No prior contract specifying another instrument or venue was supplied.

negative_expectancy: decline optimization of this frozen LINK spot adaptation. The substantial full-history sample loses after commissions and modeled impact, confirming QA's advisory concern. This verdict judges the supplied LINK implementation and execution additions, not the source strategy on unspecified pairs or TD Sequential generally.

Implementation

Frozen, long-only LINK Binance Spot 1H translation of TDSequentialStrategy. Counts closes against four candles earlier, preserves the original exceed flags and ninth-count overwrite, and uses signal-close GTC limit entries and exits after 30 startup candles. Sizes at 1% equity risk with a 20% exposure ceiling, protects filled positions with a platform intrabar 5% stop, and retains the source's 500% ROI threshold.

Implements the supplied source without additional filters or tunable parameters. Sequence-six and sequence-seven extremes remain scalar anchors even during arbitrarily long sequences. At count nine, the source's initially false iterrows value overwrites the current comparison with the preceding candle's exceed flag; that behavior is preserved. Explicit limit orders are submitted inside the decision hooks because the base entry and exit helpers submit market orders. The approved platform stop substitutes STOP_MARKET protection for the source's locally managed limit stoploss mapping; pending limit exits remain protected, and surviving sibling orders are canceled when the position closes. Matching results still depend on the platform's bar-based limit fill model. No verification or performance claim is made. The requested outbox file could not be written because the filesystem is read-only; this response contains the complete task-bound JSON.

Verification Results

The sandbox recorded 206 closed positions averaging -0.5667% of notional net of costs. Assess signal-exit economics against the modeled 0.20% spot round-trip commission and impact on full history; sandbox losses do not establish a correctness defect.

Backtest Review

Sharpe: -0.06
Total return: -33.88%
Max drawdown: 73.32%
Trades: 577
Win rate: 44.5%
Profit factor: 0.90

577 closed trades over 2,777 days provide a substantial executed sample; all detail-file trades are long, consistent with the declared direction.

QA's economic concern is borne out: average net trade return is -0.2084%, versus the 0.25% spot review floor; profit factor is 0.9022 and total return is -33.8811%.

Seven annual periods after 2019 are negative. Sharpe is -0.0581; these measured losses do not justify optimization.

Buy-and-hold returned 2,284.92%; its sampled detail-curve drawdown was 89.27%, versus strategy drawdown of 73.32%.

All contract parameters are frozen and no tunable parameters exist. No verified implementation repair supports iteration.

Outcome Summary

This LINK spot adaptation showed negative net expectancy; its result does not establish how the source strategy performs on other pairs or how TD Sequential performs generally.

Backtest review issued an abandon verdict because the substantial historical sample showed negative expectancy after commissions and modeled impact. Optimization and subsequent analyst and risk reviews were not reached; all parameters were frozen, and no verified implementation repair supported iteration.

LinkFrozenTDSequential tested a frozen TD Sequential source port on LINKUSDT Binance Spot hourly bars, using long-only limit orders and a 5% intrabar protective stop.

Across 577 closed trades over 2,777 days, it returned -33.88% with a Sharpe ratio of -0.0581 and maximum drawdown of 73.32%. Average net trade return was -0.2084%, and profit factor was 0.9022.

Analysis

TDSequentialStrategy

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.