Strategies
Crypto Cross-Sectional Momentum Top-Bottom Tercile (10-Symbol Universe, 60-Day Lookback, Monthly Rebalance, Daily Bars, Long-Short Multi-Instrument)
Outcome: Abandoned
CryptoCrossSectionalMomentumTopBottomTercileLS1D
Outcome Summary
CryptoCrossSectionalMomentumTopBottomTercileLS1D implemented textbook Jegadeesh-Titman cross-sectional momentum on a diversified 10-name crypto universe at the correct monthly/daily horizon, explicitly addressing a prior wrong-horizon abandon. But the backtest never produced an evaluable edge: a gross-uncapped rebalance-netting bug let positions accumulate to ~6x equity, generating physically impossible daily returns for a dollar-neutral book, 369% annualized volatility, and a -100% CAGR. The defect was identical to the one already flagged (and provided as fix feedback) on the 12-instrument weekly and 4H variants, marking it systemic, while the momentum mechanism itself had shown no demonstrated alpha across repeated attempts. The analyst abandoned this run at the backtest-review gate, prescribing framework-level fixes — gross caps, per-leg net-notional verification, and equity guards — before any further multi-instrument long/short work.
Hypothesis
Implementation
Multi-instrument long-short cross-sectional momentum on a fixed 10-symbol Binance USD-M perp universe (BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, AVAX, LINK, DOT), daily bars. Every 30 days it ranks all 10 by trailing 60-day return, goes long the top 3 and short the bottom 3 (equal-weight within each leg, dollar-neutral), and holds until the next rebalance. Each symbol is moved to its target signed position with a single delta order on the netting account, so long<->short flips and exits are one order each and gross never transiently exceeds the 90% target. Pure OHLCV, no supplementary data, leverage 1.0 (gross ~90%, net ~0). Three edge parameters: lookback_days, rebalance_days, top_n.
Backtest Review
- Sharpe
- 0.38
- Total return
- 40.01%
- Max drawdown
- 68.70%
- Trades
- 192
- Win rate
- 49.5%
- Profit factor
- 0.88
Academically grounded mechanism (Jegadeesh-Titman cross-sectional momentum) at the correct monthly/daily horizon on a diversified 10-name universe
Conceptually clean dollar-neutral design
Runaway exposure: exposure_pct 609% (~6x equity vs intended 0.90 gross), avg_position_pct 140% — the rebalance netting does not cap gross, positions accumulate
Physically impossible daily returns for a market-neutral L/S (2021-07-20 +929%, 2021-02-20 -201%, 2026-03-26 +349%, 2024-12-01 -150%); max_drawdown_ci_high 627%, annualized_volatility 369%, return_kurtosis 1293, CAGR -100%
Same exposure/position-accumulation bug already flagged on the 12-instrument weekly cross-sectional version (604%) and the 4H version (3073%) — recurring systemic rebalancing defect, not a one-off
Cross-sectional momentum mechanism has failed repeatedly (prior 5-coin version PF ~0.99; every multi-instrument variant blows up before yielding an evaluable edge)
Outcome Summary
An academically grounded mechanism at the correct horizon cannot be evaluated until the multi-instrument rebalance layer is sound — gross exposure must be hard-capped and each leg's net signed notional verified against its target after rebalancing, and a strategy class that has repeatedly blown up or shown no net-of-cost edge should not consume further optimization cycles until that shared framework defect is fixed.
The analyst abandoned it at the backtest-review gate before optimization because the same gross-uncapped rebalance-netting defect had already recurred across the developer's multi-instrument long/short rebalancers (the 12-instrument weekly version at 604% exposure, the 4H version at 3073%), making this a systemic bug rather than a one-off; separately, the cross-sectional momentum mechanism itself had been repeatedly tested without a demonstrated edge (a prior 5-coin basket at profit factor ~0.99).
A multi-instrument, OHLCV-only long/short cross-sectional momentum strategy on a fixed 10-symbol Binance USD-M perp universe — the canonical Jegadeesh-Titman 12-1 momentum effect at the academically correct horizon (daily bars, 60-day lookback, 30-day rebalance), going long the top 3 and short the bottom 3 trailing performers, equal-weight and dollar-neutral, as the post-mortem fix for an earlier wrong-horizon ETH-BTC ratio-momentum attempt.
The backtest was corrupted by a runaway-exposure bug rather than producing an evaluable edge: exposure ran to 609% (~6x equity versus the intended 0.90 gross), avg_position_pct 140%, with physically impossible daily returns for a dollar-neutral book (e.g., +929% on 2021-07-20, -201% on 2021-02-20), CAGR -100%, annualized volatility 369%, kurtosis 1293, profit factor 0.88, and a max-drawdown CI high of 627%.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.