Strategies
Rank-Weighted Dollar-Neutral Cross-Sectional Momentum, Long-Short Market-Neutral (BINANCE USD-M, 8 Majors, MONTHLY: Weight EVERY Name by its Momentum RANK — Long the Above-Median Half, Short the Below-Median Half, Dollar-Neutral — Full-Cross-Section Rank Weighting for Within-Leg Diversification and Squeeze Resistance, DD Bounded by the Momentum Spread, 2-Parameter)
Outcome: Abandoned
RankWeightedDollarNeutralMomentumLS
Outcome Summary
Hypothesis
Implementation
Rank-weighted dollar-neutral cross-sectional momentum, long-short market-neutral on 8 BINANCE USD-M majors (BTC/ETH/SOL/BNB/XRP/ADA/AVAX/LINK, 1-DAY bars). MONTHLY it ranks all 8 by trailing relative strength and assigns symmetric linear rank weights — strongest name largest long, weakest largest short, weights summing to zero (dollar-neutral) — with ls_fraction controlling how much of the cross-section is taken per side. Weights are scaled to a gross budget of equity and each name is reconciled to its signed target notional every month. Net beta ~0 so drawdown is bounded by the momentum spread rather than crypto beta. Pure-price, no supp data, no ticks. 2 core parameters: momentum_lookback, ls_fraction.
Verification Results
Skip the orders_open guard for the reopen half of a flip (close is reduce-only), or defer the opposite leg to the next rebalance.
Flip reconciliation close-then-reopens on the same bar; _submit's `if cache.orders_open(iid): return` guard can see the just-submitted reduce-only close and skip the reopen half, briefly tilting off dollar-neutral. Empirically not biting — sandbox shows balanced 22L/22S, beta 0.017. Latent risk only; direct winner↔loser flips are rare monthly. (Unchanged from iter-1.)
Analyst: judge on full multi-year backtest (incl. 2022); note capacity ~$2.1M / impact 21.8% folded.
Marginally positive but inconclusive one-year sandbox: total_return +1.33%, PF 1.014, Sharpe 0.119 (CI straddles zero), 44 trades. Not an L17 code-defect signature. Negative avg_trade_return_pct alongside positive total/pnl is the multi-leg per-trade-pct artifact. Developer set a hard bar: abandon the family if the full backtest shows >50% DD / PF<1 / squeeze blowups.
Backtest Review
- Sharpe
- -0.34
- Total return
- -91.32%
- Max drawdown
- 92.82%
- Trades
- 268
- Win rate
- 45.1%
- Profit factor
- 0.63
The developer correctly fixed the 0-qty crash (instrument-precision make_qty + zero-qty guard); it now runs the full window
Genuinely market-neutral construction (beta -0.04); rank-weighting did spread notional across all 8 names as intended
Reproduces the dollar-neutral momentum blowup (my explicit abandon bar): max_drawdown 92.82% (CI to 99.7%), total_return -91.32%, profit_factor 0.633, avg_trade_return_pct -5.36%, expectancy -$383/trade
Wild short-squeeze monthly blowups (2021-02 -191%, 2024-11 -111%, 2021-01 -55%) — the rank-weighting diluted but did NOT remove the unbounded squeeze risk of shorting crypto momentum-losers
Mostly negative every year (2021 -89%, 2023 -31%, 2024 -133%); account effectively destroyed after 2024-11 (returns go to 0.0)
Third confirmed blowup of the dollar-neutral momentum/reversal family (discrete -96%, reversal -97%, this -91%) plus the risk-parity duplicate
Analysis
Outcome Summary
No weighting scheme within the dollar-neutral crypto-majors momentum family removes the unbounded short-squeeze risk of shorting momentum-losers — spreading the short across more names only dilutes it — so the entire family is empirically dead and further variants are wasted iterations.
It was abandoned at backtest-review (verdict: abandon) because the clean re-run reproduced exactly the dollar-neutral momentum blowup the analyst had set as the hard abandon bar — rank-weighting diluted but did not remove the unbounded upside squeeze risk of shorting crypto momentum-losers, so drawdown still blew through the bound to 92.8%, essentially identical to the discrete (-96%) and reversal (-97%) siblings.
It was a dollar-neutral long-short version of the cross-sectional momentum signal on 8 USD-M majors that, instead of discrete top-2/bottom-2 legs, weighted every name continuously by its momentum rank (largest long weight to the strongest, largest short to the weakest, weights summing to zero), monthly — aiming to spread the short across all 8 names for within-leg diversification and squeeze resistance while keeping drawdown bounded by the momentum spread.
After a fixed 0-quantity crash it ran the full window as genuinely market-neutral (beta -0.04), but was a decisive loser: total return -91.32%, max drawdown 92.82% (CI to 99.7%), profit factor 0.633, avg_trade_return_pct -5.36%, expectancy -$383/trade, Sharpe -0.34, with wild short-squeeze months (2021-02 -191%, 2024-11 -111%) and the account effectively destroyed after 2024-11.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.