Universal Investor EMA/LWMA Directional Agreement on BCH Hyperliquid 4H

Hypothesis

Preserve the submitted directional mechanism rather than replacing it with an unrelated options or arbitrage strategy. Hyperliquid is underrepresented at 11.1% versus its 20% target, and short exposure addresses the portfolio's long-only concentration. BCH avoids BTC concentration; instrument-level novelty cannot be established because corpus_concentration is empty. Four-hour bars permit substantially longer Hyperliquid validation than subhourly bars. This is a source-driven replication with a shared-period EMA/LWMA comparison, not a claim of a newly discovered momentum edge. Prior failed moving-average strategies motivate conservative sizing and transparent replication labeling, not rejection of this testable source.

negative_expectancy: decline optimization of this BCH 4H operationalization because its measured mean net position return is -0.0662%, below the +0.15% venue review floor across 147 closed positions. Positive size-weighted profits reconcile and do not invalidate that finding. No verified implementation repair supports developer iteration. This rejects the supplied platform completions, not the original Universal Investor or all EMA/LWMA strategies; no parameter sweep has been evaluated.

Implementation

Close-price EMA/LWMA directional agreement on BCH Hyperliquid 4H, long and short, with opposite-ordering exits and no pyramiding or same-bar reentry. Notional is equity times 0.25 divided by (1 + consecutive losses / 3); minimum notional is $10.

Preserves EMA-above-LWMA plus rising slopes for longs, symmetric shorts and opposite-ordering exits described at https://www.mql5.com/en/code/1076. Period 20, close-based indexing and the smooth loss-reduction formula are explicit platform completions, not verified original defaults. Only MovingPeriod is tunable from 10 to 40; the research evaluation plan is preserved. Indicator updates are incremental, using bounded base history, and decision state is scalar for restart persistence. No additional filter or stop is added; the 15% drawdown constraint is evaluated by the pipeline rather than guaranteed by the strategy.

Verification Results

Sandbox total return is +3.55% while average notional-normalized trade return is -0.1169%. Reconcile notional weighting and cost attribution before judging economics. Impact consumes 77.37% of reported gross; these are advisory findings.

Backtest Review

Sharpe

0.23

Total return

5.21%

Max drawdown

16.85%

Trades

147

Win rate

61.9%

Profit factor

1.08

147 closed positions across 791 days provide a functioning sample; 74 longs and 73 shorts agree with the bidirectional premise.

Trade P&L sums to $5,208.01, matching the fully realized +5.208% return. Variable notionals explain the negative unweighted average return alongside positive dollar profits; this discrepancy does not establish an accounting artifact.

Mean net notional return is -0.0662% versus the Hyperliquid review floor of +0.15%. QA's economic concern is borne out, although aggregate dollar expectancy remains positive.

PF is only 1.084 and modeled impact consumes 69.97% of gross P&L, leaving fragile economics.

The early short lost $10,461.71 with a -55.80% position return. Reversal-only exits permit substantial adverse moves.

Strategy return/drawdown are +5.208%/16.846%, versus buy-and-hold +71.337%/60.795%; beta is -0.0434, so benchmark underperformance alone is not the rejection reason.

Outcome Summary

Positive size-weighted profits can coexist with negative average notional returns, so aggregate profitability alone does not establish viable trade economics.

Backtest review abandoned the strategy because mean net notional return fell below the +0.15% venue review floor, with no verified implementation repair supporting iteration. Optimization and subsequent reviews were not reached.

Trade BCH on Hyperliquid 4-hour bars using EMA/LWMA ordering and agreeing slopes, with reversal exits and reduced sizing after consecutive losses.

The backtest returned 5.208% across 147 closed positions over 791 days, with Sharpe 0.226 and maximum drawdown 16.846%. Mean net return per position notional was -0.0662%, despite positive aggregate dollar profits.

Analysis

Universal_Investor