WldFourHourVolumeBreakoutLong

WLD Four-Hour Volume Breakout Long-Only (BINANCE USD-M Futures, 4H, OHLCV-Only)

Long-only WLD (Worldcoin) 4-hour strategy on BINANCE USD-M futures. Direct analog of the landed XRP (Sharpe 1.84, paper_stage) / BTC / ETH / SOL / BNB / AVAX / INJ / TIA / SUI FourHourVolumeBreakoutLong family — applied to WLD. The 2.0x volume surge trigger produces ~30-60 trades/year (statistically valid for walk-forward), explicitly avoiding the low-frequency channel-breakout pathology that killed ADA daily. Single-instrument, OHLCV-only, single-condition entry, factory-approved 4H timeframe.

Replicates the verified FourHourVolumeBreakoutLong mechanism (XRP at Sharpe 1.84, paper stage) on WLD. The edge is a price breakout above the 20-bar Donchian high CONFIRMED by a 2.0x volume surge; the volume filter is the key differentiator versus a pure channel breakout, gating out low-conviction probes and keeping trade frequency in the ~30-60/year band that is statistically valid for walk-forward (and explicitly avoiding the low-frequency pathology that failed ADA daily). calculate_signal returns the continuous breakout margin every bar so the verifier sees genuine signal variation, while the discrete breakout+volume booleans are cached and ANDed in should_enter, avoiding the gated-to-0.0 anti-pattern. Exits combine an ATR stop, a fixed take-profit, a Donchian-low structure-failure exit, and a time stop. Venue WLDUSDT.BINANCE USD-M futures matches the landed family and futures RT taker (~0.10%) is cheaper than spot; long-only with leverage left at 1.0 (no margin needed) so the leverage_set_but_unused gate does not trigger. The 8% take-profit and 20-bar breakout structure keep expected per-trade edge well above the ~0.10% round-trip fee.

No edge plus a structural liquidity wall — the weakest arm of the FourHourVolumeBreakoutLong family seen. The net result is essentially breakeven: Sharpe 0.11, profit_factor 1.01, expectancy +$11/trade, total_return +1.65% over ~2.9 years, sharpe_ci_low -2.45 (straddles 0). Two non-tunable structural blockers seal it: impact_cost_pct 42.99% (market impact eats half the gross PnL) and capacity_usd just $541k (toy scale) — both are set by WLD's shallow 4H order book, and impact is folded into PnL, so the nil PF 1.01 is already net of a 43% cost drag. The edge is also decaying: 2023 +5.5%, 2024 +6.0%, then 2025 -3.7% and 2026 -6.3% with rolling Sharpe negative through 2026, so a recent holdout would fail. Proper sizing (avg_position_pct 17.9%) makes this a fair test, and the result is a near-zero edge on an instrument that cannot be traded at deployable scale. Not iterate: sizing is already correct (no corrupted run), reducing size further lowers impact but the gross edge is near-zero regardless, and the $541k capacity is intrinsic to WLD's liquidity — no parameter change manufactures an edge. This is worse on every axis than the abandoned OP arm (Sharpe 0.25, impact 25%, capacity $1.58M). FAILURE PATTERN: the FourHourVolumeBreakoutLong family does not generalize to thin, recently-listed alts (WLD) — the net edge collapses to breakeven (PF 1.01, Sharpe 0.11) because market impact consumes ~43% of gross PnL on the shallow 4H book, capacity is toy-scale ($541k), and the edge decays to negative in the recent years; liquidity-limited alts are structurally untradeable with this turnover regardless of parameter tuning.

Long-only WLD (Worldcoin) 4-hour volume-confirmed breakout on BINANCE USD-M futures, pure OHLCV single feed. Direct analog of the landed FourHourVolumeBreakoutLong family. Enters long when the 4H close breaks above the prior 20-bar high (Donchian upper channel) AND current volume is >= 2.0x the prior 20-bar average volume. Exits on a 2x ATR stop, an 8% take-profit, a structure-failure close below the prior 10-bar low, or a 30-bar time stop. The signal is the continuous breakout margin (close/prior_high - 1) recomputed every bar; the breakout-and-volume decision is a cached boolean read in should_enter. Sized at 20% equity notional, capped so ATR-stop risk <= 1.5% of equity. leverage 1.0.

Correctly implemented and properly sized (avg_position_pct 17.9%); faithful family port; clean entry gate (73 signaled = 73 submitted)

Essentially no edge: Sharpe 0.11, profit_factor 1.01, expectancy +$11/trade, total_return +1.65% over ~2.9 years; sharpe_ci_low -2.45 straddles 0

Structural liquidity blocker: impact_cost_pct 42.99% (impact eats half the gross PnL) and capacity_usd only $541k (toy scale) — both set by WLD's shallow 4H book, not tunable

Recent decay: 2025 -3.7%, 2026 -6.3% with rolling Sharpe negative through 2026 — a recent holdout would fail

Weakest arm of the volume-breakout family yet — below the abandoned OP arm (Sharpe 0.25, impact 25%, capacity $1.58M) on every axis

This strategy ported the proven volume-breakout family to WLD on 4H, entering long on 2.0x-volume Donchian breakouts. It was cleanly implemented and properly sized but had essentially no edge (Sharpe 0.11, profit factor 1.01, +1.65% over ~2.9 years), compounded by a structural liquidity wall — 43% impact cost and just $541k capacity from WLD's shallow order book — with the edge decaying negative in 2025-2026. The analyst abandoned it at the backtest-review gate on the first iteration as the weakest arm of the family yet (worse than the abandoned OP arm on every axis), concluding no parameter change manufactures an edge on a liquidity-limited alt at this turnover, so it never advanced to optimization or risk review.

The volume-breakout family does not generalize to thin, recently-listed alts — on WLD the net edge collapses to breakeven because market impact eats ~43% of gross PnL on a shallow book and capacity is toy-scale ($541k), and these liquidity limits are intrinsic to the instrument, untradeable at this turnover regardless of parameters.

The backtest-review analyst issued an 'abandon' verdict: it was a fair, properly-sized test, so the result is a near-zero edge plus a structural liquidity wall — market impact (folded into PnL) consumes ~43% of gross on WLD's shallow 4H book and capacity is toy-scale ($541k), neither tunable — making it the weakest arm of the family yet, worse on every axis than the already-abandoned OP arm.

A long-only WLD (Worldcoin) 4H volume-breakout strategy on Binance USD-M futures (1.0x leverage, 0.20 position cap) — a faithful port of the landed FourHourVolumeBreakoutLong family — entering on a 20-bar Donchian breakout confirmed by a 2.0x volume surge, exiting via ATR stop, 8% take-profit, structure failure, or a time stop.

Across 73 trades over ~2.9 years it was essentially breakeven — Sharpe 0.11, profit factor 1.01, expectancy +$11/trade, +1.65% total, 12.1% max drawdown, CI straddling zero — and critically capacity was only $541k with impact cost at 42.99% of gross PnL, while recent years decayed (2025 -3.7%, 2026 -6.3%) with rolling Sharpe negative through 2026.