Strategies
Diversified Intraday VWAP-Reversion Basket, Long-Short (Three Liquid USD-M Majors BNB/LTC/BCH, 15m Bars, Fade MODERATE VWAP Z-Deviations Independently Per Name, Gap-Capped Small Notional + 1x Leverage — Diversify Away the Noise AND the Single-Name Blowup, 3-Parameter)
Outcome: Abandoned
VwapReversionBasketLS
Outcome Summary
This strategy took the factory's one surviving price mechanism — 15m VWAP-reversion — and tried to rescue it by running the same moderate-deviation fade independently across BNB, LTC, and BCH, betting that per-name notional caps and 1x leverage would diversify away both the noise and the single-name liquidation risk that killed its SOL and XRP siblings. Instead, on a statistically decisive 19,396-trade sample it lost on every metric (Sharpe -0.97, profit factor 0.70, negative per-trade edge of -0.0147%) and was fully liquidated to -100% on 2021-02-21, directly falsifying its own central premise. The classic fade-gets-run-over signature was intact — a 65% win rate paired with losses 2.6x the size of wins — because all three names faded into the same 2020-21 uptrend at once, so diversification bought no protection. The backtest review abandoned it before optimization, reasoning that no tuning of vwap_window/entry_z/exit_z could flip negative expectancy or un-liquidate the account.
Hypothesis
Strategy LIQUIDATED to -100% (max_drawdown 100%) on 2021-02-21, directly falsifying the hypothesis's central premise that per-name 15% notional caps + 1x leverage prevent single-name/gap blowup. The edge is negative and below fees: avg_trade_return_pct -0.0147%, profit_factor 0.70, Sharpe -0.97, all on a decisive 19,396-trade sample. The inverted reward/risk is diagnostic of the mean-reversion VWAP-fade class (win_rate 0.65 but avg_loss 2.6x avg_win) that has died repeatedly this session across SOL/ETH/XRP/DOGE/BNB/LINK — fades that win small and lose big when they get run over by trend. Diversifying across BNB/LTC/BCH did not help because all three fade into the same 2020-21 uptrend (the -346% 2021 return and -175% single-day swings show effective exposure blew past 1x as the fade re-entered/compounded). Optimizing vwap_window/entry_z/exit_z cannot flip negative expectancy or un-liquidate the account — it would only overfit noise. Abandon rather than spend 2 hours optimizing.
Implementation
Backtest Review
- Sharpe
- -0.97
- Total return
- -100.00%
- Max drawdown
- 100.00%
- Trades
- 19396
- Win rate
- 64.5%
- Profit factor
- 0.70
Well-sampled (19,396 trades) so the result is statistically decisive, not noise
Clean 3-parameter design and sensible engineering intent (per-name caps, independent processing)
Account was LIQUIDATED (total_return -100%, max_drawdown 100%) on 2021-02-21 — the hypothesis's core claim that 1x + per-name caps prevent blowup is falsified
avg_trade_return_pct = -0.0147% — NEGATIVE per-trade edge, below the 0.15% futures fee floor; no parameter tuning can flip negative expectancy
profit_factor 0.70 (<1.0), Sharpe -0.97, Sortino -0.96 — a net loser on every risk metric
Classic mean-reversion VWAP-fade failure mode: win_rate 0.65 but avg_loss ($95.5) ~2.6x avg_win ($36.6) — wins are capped by reversion exits while the 3% stop lets fade-into-trend losers compound, with -175% single-day swings showing effective exposure far exceeded 1x
Same fade-gets-run-over class that has died repeatedly this session across SOL/ETH/XRP/DOGE/BNB/LINK; diversifying across 3 majors did not help because all three fade into the same 2020-21 up-trend (information_ratio -2.36 vs equal-weight basket)
Outcome Summary
Diversifying a VWAP-fade across multiple majors does not neutralize its core failure mode, because all names fade into the same market-wide uptrend simultaneously — the reversion class wins small and loses big when run over by trend, and per-name caps do not stop compounding re-entries from pushing effective exposure past 1x.
The pre-optimization backtest review abandoned it outright: the liquidation directly falsified the hypothesis's central premise that per-name caps plus 1x leverage prevent gap blowup, and negative expectancy below fees cannot be fixed by tuning the three parameters.
A long-short intraday VWAP mean-reversion basket that faded moderate z-score deviations independently on three liquid USD-M majors (BNB/LTC/BCH) at 15m bars with per-name notional caps and 1x leverage, aiming to diversify away both the noise and the single-name blowup that killed prior reversion siblings.
Over a decisive 19,396-trade sample the strategy was a net loser on every risk metric — Sharpe -0.97, Sortino -0.96, profit factor 0.70, and a negative per-trade edge of -0.0147% (below the 0.15% futures fee floor) — with a 65% win rate undercut by an average loss ($95.5) ~2.6x the average win ($36.6). The account was fully liquidated (total return -100%, max drawdown 100%) on 2021-02-21.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.